What if the Spanish Fascists Lost the Civil War? – WW2 feat. Hearts of Iron IV [sponsored]

What if the Spanish Fascists Lost the Civil War? – WW2 feat. Hearts of Iron IV [sponsored]

I’m Indy Neidell and this is a World War
Two special episode. It is a collaboration with the video game
Hearts of Iron and is the first of two. Now, you guys have been asking in comments
if we’d do something with HoI for several years now, but until now there wasn’t really
anything that seemed like a good fit – and that would be fun to do. Until now. A few months ago, the HoI gang got hold of
me and told me they had a new release coming out. It’s an expansion of HoI 4 – La Resistance-
with scenarios about the French Resistance in WW2 and the Spanish Civil War. It should be out when this comes out. They wondered if we wanted to do some sort
of alternate history for those new scenarios. Well, much as I liked the idea of being about
to use some their gameplay in an episode- because it’s really cool, the immediate
problem was: this is a world war two channel, covering it in real time. I was still in 1940 and France has fairly
recently fallen, the fully organized resistance you see in books and movies hasn’t really
gotten going yet, and I didn’t want to break our chronological coverage of the war and
get into the future. As for the Spanish Civil War, while sure,
it’s super interesting and it was in many ways a “warm up” for some the warring
WW2 nations, it’s not really what this channel is all about. But since Paradox- who make HoI, has a big
office a 20 minute walk from me in Stockholm, I went over and had lunch with some their
history guys and developers. We started talking about history, and I could’ve
sat there all day because these guys not only know their stuff, they’re cool to hang out
with. But still, what can we come up with that’s
relevant for both them and us? Well, we came up with two ideas- well we came
up with a bunch- but two we liked best, possible points before WW2 where a change in the timeline
could have profound effects on WW2. One involving Spain and one involving France. We went over a whole bunch of what ifs based
on those two, some apocalyptic, some mild, and in a minute you’ll see the fruits of
our labors. First, though, a quick point about alternative
histories. I’ve always had a big problem with them. The reason being that the premises people
throw out never make sense. Someone might ask, “what if Hitler died
in 1928?” Well, I could not make alternative sense out
of that. Because how did he die? Was it suicide, accident, or murder? Those would produce three very different stories. If murder, by whom? His own guys? Political opponents? Cultural opponents? A foreign antagonist? Again, these would all produce different reactions
and thus different stories- and we haven’t even gotten into why whoever did it did it. So I can’t stand general what ifs, because
even though a what if is by nature unrealistic, those are too unrealistic for me. So we tried make something more specific,
in today’s case something that happened involving Spain that had repercussions on
WW2. I am NOT going to tell you the story of the
Spanish Civil War and how it began and all that to set this up, though. You can look that up for yourselves. We have a Between 2 Wars episode about the
background to the SCW that will help with that. Link is in the description. Anyhow, in our world the Nationalists, led
by Francisco Franco, won the war and after that Spain was neutral in WW2, though as we’ve
seen in our regular episodes still has some influence on it. So, an obvious “what if” is to have the
Nationalists lose the Spanish Civil War, and I think removing Franco from the picture could
help with that. I’m going to try to reverse engineer it. I think that could happen most likely just
during or before the 1936 July coup. Here are some actual events in our time that
happened that I’m gonna cherry pick here. By mid-1936 you had a bunch of generals who
wanted to take power. They had no problems with the idea of violently
opposing the Popular Front government. Older Generals like José Sanjurjo looked
down on professional politicians, the younger ones had no loyalty to a regime they thought
impermanent, and they all thought they had a right to intervene. Hence, the July coup. Now, the obvious figurehead for the coup was
Sanjurjo. General Emilio Mola directed it, but he had
to deal with some issues- the Popular Front had removed “suspect” generals from major
influential positions. Franco- former Chief of Staff- had been sent
to the Canary Islands. Sanjurjo was in exile in Portugal. Mola himself was in Pamplona. Here’s an odd thing: Franco wrote a June
23 letter to PM Casares Quiroga- a weird letter. He implies in it that the Army will remain
loyal if they’re well-treated, but also that they’re hostile to the republic. It seems fairly obvious that Franco is hinting
that is Casares puts him in charge, then no coup will happen- and let’s be clear, the
government has received repeated warnings about the plot. Casares just ignored the letter, but realistically,
it was a perfect excuse to have Franco arrested or just buy him off. So that’s chance number one to get Franco
out of the picture even before the coup. Franco was pretty necessary to the coup in
general. He had a lot of respect from the Army of Africa,
Spain’s best shock troops, with whom he’d served, and let’s be clear- the coup cannot
possibly succeed without the A of A. Franco is the obvious leader for them; they must
not remain loyal to the Republic. So, Sanjurjo is going to be head of state,
Mola will be a big cheese, the generals like Fanjul and Goded are assigned places where
they will hold sway post coup- Franco will have Morocco. The top civilian leader post coup will be
the hugely charismatic Calvo Sotelo, but he is assassinated a few days before the coup. For the actual coup itself, Franco is to be
flown from the Canaries to Morocco to take command of the Army of Africa, but there is
one huge, major, possibly insurmountable problem- as military commander of the Canaries, his
HQ is in Santa Cruz, but the plane to smuggle him to Africa is on Gran Canaria. In order to go to Gran Canaria he needs permission
from the Ministry of War, and his request to make an inspection tour has been turned
down- and then comes either the greatest coincidence in Franco’s whole life or a dastardly act
of foul play. On the 16th, General Balmes, who commands
on Gran Canaria and is an excellent marksman, is shot and dies at a shooting range while
trying out pistols. No one will ever know if it is murder, suicide,
or accident- the amount of debate is crazy, but General Franco, of course, must preside
over the funeral July 17th in Las Palmas so he’s amazingly in place for the coup. That’s chance number two to remove Franco
from the coup- by keeping Balmes alive. That evening the coup begins in the Moroccan
garrisons and the next morning Franco takes over Las Palmas. The coup and the Civil War begin. Details, details, and more details happen. And then on the 19th, Sanjurjo dies in the
stupidest mother fucking plane crash in history- easily avoidable and easily preventable. Look it up. Anyhow, now the Nationalists are without their
future head state- Sotelo is also dead, Fanjul and Goded will be captured by Republicans
and executed in August, Primo de Rivera- who I haven’t even mentioned but am now just
to stop the comments that say I didn’t- is still in a republican jail cell, so soon
enough only Mola is in any position to challenge Franco as leader whatever happens, but Franco
is his senior officer. Sanjurjo and Sotelo not dying are, I think,
both potential game changers, but not to Franco not being in the coup, rather to him as eventual
leader. But backtrack to the first days of the coup
in July: Franco has the Moroccan Army. But… what good are they if he can’t get
them to Spain from Africa? That seems to me to be the BIG issue. And guess what? The Straits are controlled by Republican naval
ships whose crews had mutinied against their officers who were with the coup, so the A
of A has no way of getting to mainland Spain. This is unexpected. Also, in the three biggest Spanish cities,
Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia the coup has collapsed pretty quickly, so it is all fizzling
out shortly after it has begun. So what will Franco do? He asks for foreign help. He cables again and again to Mussolini, who
says no no no and no. Mussolini is concerned cause the thinks France
is gonna send help to the Republicans, and he doesn’t want to be openly against them
yet… …until he realizes that they’re not going
to and gets news the 27th that the USSR also won’t help the Republic. So he sends in bombers to Franco as air transport-
though a couple of crashes alert the whole wide world that he is doing it- and the Army
of Africa can slowly but surely go to Spain. This turns a coup going wrong into a coup
going right. Sure, Hitler soon sends aid too and then eventually
Stalin to the Republicans and it turns it into a long ass war yadda yadda yadda, BUT
no Italian aid in late July-early August=failed coup. Well, to me, at least. And it is Franco who’s asking for it, Franco
who’s pulling the strings of flattery on Mussolini, and Franco that turns Mussolini
from no to yes. Could Mola have orchestrated this with Mussolini
as well? Maybe, but not in July, and certainly not
while marching around northern Spain with his armies. So… let’s say Franco was arrested after
the letter. He’s in prison and isn’t part of the coup. That’s my arbitrary point to pick. Someone else ends up running the A of A, but
it can’t get to Spain and the coup falls apart. What then? The Republic remains. Considering the other uprisings in 30s Spain
I can see a general purge of the right-wing officer class, and a collapse of right wing
influence- the Carlists, the Falangists, etc., have no unity. With the right wing collapsed, a France friendly
to the democratic factions in the cities and a Soviet Union to the socialist ones in the
countryside is in the cards. A shaky coalition of those factions runs the
country, but a rift begins growing between them right off the bat. What do the foreign powers do? France has to be ecstatic now that instead
of three fascist states on its borders, it’s only two. France gives aid to the democratic factions
now post-coup to help stabilize the Republic. Britain is still concerned with appeasement,
but I can see France sending in help. The USSR- well, they have diplomatic relations
with Spain, they also have the 1935 pact of mutual assistance with France. Stalin also changed Soviet foreign policy
in the mid 30s so that social democratic parties in other nations were not anathema, but communist
parties now could do joint actions with them. This to keep things friendly with places like
Britain and France because of the rise of Germany and Italy, so the Soviets can now
send aid to those parties in Spain without worrying about Germany and Italy supplying
the other side. I can easily see Germany and Italy sending
aid now to Salazar’s Portugal, though. France stops sending aid eventually. They have enough troubles with their own far
right being anti-sending aid, and their own political instability. I’m thinking Stalin will keep jacking up
its aid to Spain, though, increasingly it militarily especially, wanting a Communist
or socialist state at the other end of Europe. Also, Soviet military support and the purge
of right-wing elements in the Spanish army, leads over the months to a largely Soviet
sympathetic Spanish military. This is left unchecked- who’s gonna check
it, and in 1939 leads to a Soviet backed Communist coup in Spain. With Red Army support the Spanish army invades
Portugal and after a short and bloody war the Iberian Soviet Republic is declared. France is obviously thrilled to now have two
fascist and one communist country on its borders. When the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is then created
between Germany and the USSR, now it involves Iberia and Italy as well. With the Iberian Soviet a reality, it is now
necessarily a pact to split up all of Europe in future and not just the eastern parts,
hence also involving Italy. France is planned for three zones- one German,
one Italian, and one Iberian/Soviet. Germany invades Poland, but things go a bit
differently in this reality. France and Britain declare war on Germany
still, sure, BUT when the USSR also invades Poland, Iberia mobilizes and sends troops
to the French border and Italy declares war on France and Britain. I know that Italy has been unwilling to go
to war with the west, but if they don’t do anything now, they don’t get ANY of France,
should anything happen. The Iberian troops do not attack France, so
nor do the Italians, but the warning is clear- “if you have a problem with anything, France,
you are going to get hit from all sides”. Britain withdraws the BEF from the continent,
knowing that they can’t fight Germany, Italy, Iberia, and the USSR at the same time. Once they withdraw, though, Hitler, unable
to resist, invades France and the low countries. Italy and Iberia follow suit so they don’t
miss out on their “agreed upon” territory- Iberia now declaring war on France. France falls and is divided. The USSR invades Finland and the Baltics. Britain mines Norwegian waters so Germany
can’t invade Norway for the moment. Germany responds by invading Sweden and Denmark
to secure at least some iron by rail and to stop Soviet northern expansion. I don’t see a Battle of Britain happening
yet. Germany and Britain have had no active war
yet. As far as Hitler is concerned, it’s still
appeasement. The wildcard is Britain’s Royal Navy. The navy is what prevented the Axis from taking
all of North Africa, Suez, and the Middle Eastern oil in our world. Iberia and Italy are in this world taking
France’s colonies in Africa, and Italy, of course, wants Britain’s. Now, IF Italy makes a concerted effort to
attack those colonies, Britain will send the navy to fight them. Not going to give up Suez without a fight. This, however, plays right into Adolf Hitler’s
hands. A massive and concerted effort by the Luftwaffe
and the Italian Air Force destroys the bulk of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean. I think it’s even possible that Iberia-
who controls the Straits of Gibraltar, will bottle up any ships that manage to escape
the “Axis” Powers. British possessions in Africa, the Middle
East, and Asia- which I’ll get to in a minute, all are now to fall. Britain is isolated on its home island, but
with the well-armed BEF and the RAF there, Germany does not consider invading but a peace
is signed. I think Halifax would be PM this time and
not Churchill, by the way, there was no Norwegian crisis. Now, we know that Hitler’s big plan is to
attack the USSR and destroy Bolshevism- his ideological enemy. Does he do this with a powerful Iberian Soviet
not just in Iberia but also holding a third of France? Big question. I think not for the time being. A stalemate emerges between the Communists
and Fascists in mainland Europe. They carve up the Balkans and SE Europe- what’s
to stop them? A Cold War begins in 1940 instead of 1945,
and between communism and fascism in this case. The people of Europe suffer tremendously. Hitler said- in our reality in 1940- that
if Britain lost the Battle Britain, Germany wouldn’t even be the big winner because
Japan would take Britain’s Asian possessions, Italy the African ones, and the Soviet Union
India. Well, without the Royal Navy and without even
a Vichy France then Japan surely takes British, French, and Dutch possessions in the far east-
Malaya, Thailand, Indochina, etc. Italy and Spain carve up Africa as colonial
masters- again, what’s to stop them? A European stalemate could lead to the USSR
in fact moving into India too, as Hitler posited. What does the US do? They are certainly alarmed by the destruction
of the Royal Navy. But I don’t think there’s necessarily
a Pearl Harbor here. In January 1941 in our world Japan begins
rice rationing. It is vital then to secure new food sources
in the region and that will bring Japan into conflict with other nations, the US among
them, sure. If Japan can simply take those sources, and
the US is the only power in the region to worry about, well- it’s a balancing act,
but a Japan with food and resources in 1941 might well be a Japan that avoids a new entanglement. The US will massively rearm with all this
going on and make clear that the Western Hemisphere is hands off. I don’t think anyone is interested in challenging
that. So Europe falls into darkness, Asia falls
into darkness, Africa falls into darkness, America is vigilant. And what happens after that? Lord knows. A dark, dark scenario. Or… Italy doesn’t send planes to Spain, the
Republicans win and they manage to make a stable government, WW2 begins as it did, Spain
is either neutral or an ally, but everything still mainly goes as it did in our world and
not much at all changes. That’s how alternate histories are. They can be anything. Maybe you don’t think this one is plausible. Hey, maybe you’re right. Feel free to send us your own scenarios. And even better, feel free to play Hearts
of Iron 4 and the new expansion and see how yours turn out when YOU make the pivotal decisions. It is a truly awesome game- well, you’ve
seen some of the game play now so you have an idea- and you will be surprised at the
number of variations you’ll find as you “control” your part of the world. I’m sure many of you watching this are here
for the first time, so check out our regular episodes- we follow WW2, the actual one, in
real time from beginning to end, week by week, 52 weeks a year. You can click right here to see an episode
that features Spain pretty heavily, neutral or no. Do not forget to subscribe and ring that bell. See you next time.

100 thoughts on “What if the Spanish Fascists Lost the Civil War? – WW2 feat. Hearts of Iron IV [sponsored]

  1. A while ago we met up with the guys and galls from Paradox Interactive, the team behind the Military Strategy Game Hearts of Iron IV. And though we are working in two very different fields, us in reporting on factual history and they in creating your own alternative history, we really like each others work and started looking for a way to work together. Here it is, an alternative scenario with deep roots in actual history, illustrated by the Hearts of Iron IV game. We have played it ourselves, and it is impressively extensive – featuring many characters and events that we talk about every week. If you haven't discovered HOI4 yet, or if you want to find out more about their upcoming expansion pack 'La Résistance', you can click right here -> https://pdxint.at/37Po039

  2. That was exciting. I love alternate histories and the WW2DBD channel having fun with one made my day.
    You mentioned a 2nd one. Eagerly awaiting it 🙂

  3. Gibraltar is the key to the western access to the Mediterranean… and would be a hard nut for a Republican Spanish government to take, as the Soviets would not be able to supply them with the necessary heavy equipment and artillery.

    Even should the Army's coup fail in Spain, in Morocco and the Canaries, it would likely have succeeded, such that Spain would be split between Iberia and Morocco .

    That would further improve the defensibilty of Gibraltar.

    As for Italian military success in the Med, the Italian Navy would need to have much tighter quality control over their ammunition production, especially for battleship and cruiser main guns. They would also have to purge the political admirals in favor of the competent ones… both of which are very un-Italian actions…

    They only purged their admirals and officers starting in about 1943 as I recall, primarily due to losing too many engagements with the Brits…

    The Regio Aeronautica had much worse logistics problems than the Luftwaffe, so even with French support, I foresee major difficulties for them to dominate the Med. Possibly also with Luftwaffe support, and if the Fallschirmjaeger were used to invade Malta instead of Crete.

    Even if Japanese expansion in the Asia-Pacific were to be much less opposed by the European colonial powers – unlikely, as the Australians and Kiwis would retain more of the armies rather than deploy them to Africa under the scenario being developed here – they would still run afoul of the United States interests in China, the Philippines, Marianas, Marshalls and Midway and the Aleutians. America would be a bit slower than was the case in reality in their rearmament, but lacking a Europe First strategic policy would be in a much better position to resist Japanese aggression in 1941 – 42 in real life.

    With America focused on the Pacific, the Soviets and Chinese would be in different strategic positions. The Chinese would be better placed to resist the Japanese, who actually had to have had a lot of support from the collaborator warlords who weren't KMT or Communist allies. Some of the collaborators might well have chosen to throw in with the KMT given the prospect of more US supplies.

    The Russians seeing fewer opportunities to interfere in China, and facing the possibility of their Pacific fleet getting reamed by the Japanese and/or the Americans, would not be well placed to go after India. Also, lacking the vast amount of US supplied Lend-Lease equipment and material, would not have the logistical wherewithal to even get to India, let alone make any successful military operations.

    Now, with India still firmly in the British Commonwealth, along with Australia and New Zealand, the British position in the Pacific would be about as sound as it was in real life. Malaysia and Singapore would still fall to the Japanese most likely, although the troops might make a stiffer defense given more resources that would otherwise have been diverted and lost in France.

    In South America and the Caribbean, I can see the US enforcing the Monroe doctrine even more vigorously than what really happened, and resisting German, Italian, :French" and Russian / Spanish activities with some of the resources no longer needed so badly by the British.

    I don't think that the few British colonies in the Americas would present much of a problem for Washington, and I can see where Ottawa might step up as proxies for Whitehall.

    With a United Front or even openly Soviet government in Iberia and Southwestern France, I can see much more active operations by the NKVD / OGPU / GRU in the Americas, with the Germans, Italians, and even the Moroccans also playing Spy vs. Spy.

    The OSS would still need to come into being, but it's focus would be very much on South and Central America, to defend the Panama Canal, and especially to counter Communist operations in Mexico. Trotsky would still get assassinated though – his fight with Stalin was not something where the US would benefit from either side losing…

    Going back to the Soviets – being deprived of US equipment and knowledge would weaken the Red Army & Air Force materially. Not getting into a war with the Germans on Russian soil as early would also deprive them of equipment to reverse engineer at earlier dates. This has implications for the Post War world as well.

  4. Would it be necessary for Germany to attack through The Netherlands if France was already being attacked from both sides? I would imagine that France couldn't possible have an optimal defensive on the german border if they're also being invaded in the south. But then again I'm by no means an expert on this kind of stuff.

  5. Well, our family vacation to Spain could have taken place before 1980 rather than waiting for Franco and Spanish Fascism to die out.

  6. What if the British and French had supported the Spanish Republic and prevented both Soviet aid to the Republic and Nationalists victory?

    What if the Republican government had acted decisively and armed the workers and trade unions immediately which would likely have enabled them to defeat the coup (after all, at the start the Republic could have numerically overwhelmed the relatively small Nationalist force)?

  7. So Indy wants a specific what if scenario , eh ?

    What if a group of smokers, each belonging to different political parties somehow got ahold of Hitler's secret plan to ban public smoking, and they all got together to remove that possibility. They do so in two phases, if phase one is not entirely successful.
    Phase One is pretty much the reenactment of Caesar's murder, a bunch of guys with knives get close enough and kill Hitler in… that beer hall , which there was later another failed assassination attempt by a bomb , which detonated too late. If Phase one is successful, all is well. If it's not entirely successful, Hitler is likely to be brought to either the closest hospital or military hospital, where Phase Two would occur, which is using lots of explosives to blow up the buildings with Hitler inside .

  8. "All over Spain, the sky is cloudless"…..sadly the Ivans honed their evil for use later in 1945 over half of Europe.

  9. I'd say Reichenau's crash was just as impacting…..1942 – Volga River….Vistor Pastor Ramis is right – these are spurious i.e. 'what if Castor hadn't been born?'

  10. HOI4 is a great game!

    My previous game I played South Africa, followed a nationalist line and broke with the British Empire. I joined the Axis alliance and tried to seize British colonies in Africa. A British expeditionary force was intercepted by the Italians. Britain was then succesfully invaded by Germany and I took advantage of Italy being tied up with the remaining British forces to seize most of Britain's colonies in Africa and some in the Middle East. Also, Germany overran Republican Spain and neutral Portugal at the same time and I managed to claim Portugal for South Africa.

  11. Having just watched the Between Two Wars episode on the 'Good Hitler Years', I wonder how the Nazi economy would function under stalemate. If they have an economy that's based on looting conquered enemies, then what happens when there is nothing more to conquer?

  12. Maybe this is a very stupid question, but why would Germany want to invade Sweden for iron ore, they would already have the iron ore in France?

  13. Question for indy for out of the trenches, what role did my grandads unit play in WW2, he was a regimental serjeant major in 1st battalion, The Royal Scots, the first regiment in the British army going back to 1600s, also known as pontios pilots bodyguards back in jesus times,
    Also I served 12 years in 90s for 59 independent commando engineers RE, what did they do in WW2 being British Royal Engineers Commando troops, please help with both..
    Your videos are so addictive and are a real treat to people who love learning,,, keep up the good work, sparty aswell…

  14. I can't really see the scenario going along the lines it does, as there was no way that the Italian navy, even supported in large part by other 'Axis' powers air forces could sink enough of the Royal Navy to cause all other world powers to jump in o the rest of the empire, considering that in nearly every naval engagement, the italians usually fared much worse. In addition, how would republican spain be able to pose a credible threat to france when they were very backwards militarily, and potentially still suffering from the civil war, if any, depending on how much damage was actually done in this timeline.
    I should also add that I believe britain would come to protugal's aide in the event of war by spain, due to the ancient alliance between the two, which has been honored several times int our own history.

    I will say though, this is one of the things I like about alt-history at times, as you can see sometimes very interesting interpretations of scenarios and discuss them. Some of my favourites are "what if britain and france stood by fortress czechoslovakia in 38 instead of appeasement" and "what if the proposed anglo-franco union was accepted and put into force".

  15. In the event the dark alternate happens as you describe, I could see America expanding it's influence into the rest of the Americas in a big way, needing to keep it not communist and not fascist (a lot of work). Given enough time you might even see some kind of E.U style government in the Americas. As for Europe. One word for you: Nukes. Nazi Germany were the ones that began that race. Nothing is stopping them from finishing it. Same with the Soviets, Americans, maybe even Italy/Spain, Britain etc eventually. So it's definitely a darker future there's no telling what WW3 would look like here, but any potentially nuclear war involving the Nazis…is gonna be a bad time.

  16. Spain’s the variable in this war. If they sided with the Nazis, Germany would’ve won the war. Spain’s neutrality was the decisive factor in world war 2.

  17. The reason for Sanjurjo's death according to Wikipedia:

    On 20 July 1936, Sanjurjo was killed in Estoril in a plane crash, when he tried to fly back to Spain. He chose to fly in a small biplane aircraft piloted by Juan Antonio Ansaldo. One of the main reasons for the crash was the heavy luggage that Sanjurjo insisted on bringing. Ansaldo had warned him that the load was too heavy, but Sanjurjo answered back:

    "I need to wear proper clothes as the new caudillo of Spain."

    Unaccountably, Sanjurjo chose to fly in Ansaldo's plane rather than a much larger and more suitable airplane that was available. The larger plane was an 8-passenger de Havilland Dragon Rapide, the same one which had transported Franco from the Canary Islands to Morocco. Sanjurjo, however, apparently preferred the drama of flying with a "daring aviator" such as Ansaldo (who himself survived the crash).

  18. A communist Iberia wouldn't colonize Africa, though. If anything they'd be more interested in putting up Puppet Republics.

  19. The biggest issue with alt history like indy said, is that it widely changes character and decision making patterns of people to craft scenarios where alt history could happen, but changing anything of significance in history will butterfly into god knows what, thats why making videos like these are hard

  20. I think Hitler still would have invaded the USSR because the nazi ideology is entwined with conquest and the invasion of the ussr was not decided based on logic but ideology

  21. So basically, it's a three-way war between the Allies, the Axis and the Comintern. But I think the US would join the moment the Soviet Union joins the war. The Soviets are simply too powerful for the US to ignore.

  22. The Bando sublevado wasn't an entirely fascist block, the fascist were the Phalangists lead by José Antonio Primo de Rivera, which was just a faction of the Nationalists, the Nationalists were a mix of fascists (La Falange), catholic and monarchists (Carlistas), and conservative parties (The CEDA and the Liga Regionalista). What Franco did was mixing all that ideologies in one big block centred his figure.

  23. There's a old "No Spanish Civil War in 1936" Time Line at alternatehistory.com., which also based on Francisco Franco's letter as turning point.

  24. One "what if?" option which seems almost tailor-made for the period between 1920 to 1950 which I never seem to see used is, "What if x died (or didn't die) from epidemic influenza?"
    Seriously, so many important individuals died while so many who would later be important contracted it and survived, and the circumstances which made the difference between succumbing or surviving were so complex as to be effective random chance, one would think that it would be an obvious inflection point for any number of speculative histories.

  25. 11:45 Superb! But we all know, that having "socialist' state on your border, which sooner or later means SU itself – is no better option in any way, including Soviets-German cooperation in those days…

  26. 19:30 – all those thousands of people willing to fight Germany woulg have not any 'neutral' countries ways to do so… and they were expierenced staff… so another minus for 'the free world'… and what 'bout the French fleet? It's a really astonishing edition, Mr Historic!

  27. A most interesting episode indeed. Could you do another one with a Victorious General Franco's Espania joining the Axis in the Spring of 1940 !!!

  28. Is there a specific reason why you left the CNT-FAI out of this? It seems odd, considering they were significantly more powerful a force on the left in Spain than the Communist Party and were opposed to the Soviets

  29. If the Republicans won in Spain, Spain would have had a radical left wing anti fascist government, it would have been ideologically friendly to the Soviet union, and hostile to Germany and Italy. So after the start of the war, Germany and Italy would have invaded Spain right after the fall of France, with the aim of taking Gibraltar and closing the Mediterinian sea to British shipping, the British would have scrambled their forces to Spain , if they succeeded in defending Gibraltar and Spain, they would have easily eliminated the Italians from North Africa, and Spain would be the springboard for the future liberation of France, if they succeeded in liberating France that soon in the war, the war would not have lasted that long, in other scenario, the war might have turned into a long drawn stalemate on the Pyrenees mountains like the first world war or like the static front line of the Italian Alps in WW2. The invasion of the Soviet Union might not have occurred, the Soviets would have waited out until the two parties get exhausted make a move on to Eastern Europe the Fat East and the Middle East.

    In a scenario which the British failed in their defense of Spain and the Gibraltar, Italy and Gremany might have succeeded in taking Egypt and the Suez canal , British power might have collapsed in the middle east. Turkey, Greece and Yugoslavia might have been persuaded to join the Axis powers with out any shot , Italy might have succeeded in driving out the British from it's colonies in Sudan and Kenya, with a secure southern flank, Germany might have been able to concentrate a much bigger force against the Soviet union, than it had in 1941. And Fascism would have reigned supreme in the world for decades to come.

  30. Aight, so we got TimeGhost cooperating with Paradox and Sabaton, and Paradox using Sabatons Music in a DLC… When will we get to see the band play HoI4 with (or perhaps agains) Indy and co?

  31. Spain was not an important country in ww2. Spain have probably been neutral in ww2 even the socialist have won the civil war in Spain. So the result have been the same.

  32. Republican Spain was a union between basically anybody on the left. Libertarians, Socialists, Communists, anarchists and many more. If they won then the country would probably be way too busy with follow-up civil wars to join ww2

  33. Hello! I know i'm late but it would be intresting if you do an video about if Austria refused the anchluss and how it would escolate

  34. i have to somwhat disagree about Portugal "just falling";
    1. Portugal is Britain's oldest ally, and we're talking 1936, not 1940. even with Chamberlain's appeasement, i dont think he would allow a noone like spanish communists to run over portugal, if nothing because of internal condemnation. so, british help would start arriving.
    2. even though portugese military was undergoing a reform at this point, we underestimate the fact that there, the country WAS united, government WAS popular, and also that Salazar's Portugal was a catholic country and could whip up religious defensive crusade and – justified – fear of communist takeover. after taking over, spain should first need to intenraly consolidate under communist rule, a difficult task, given strength of anarchists. secondly, it would need time for a necesary military buildup for invasion of Portugal, which would give portugal time to prepare. remember, portugal isn't well suited for quick sweeps, and portugal/britain control the sea, it would mean infantry pushes.

    therefore, i believe Portugal wouldn't just fall.

  35. The "or" scenario after 19'13" seems much more plausible. Essentially nothing happens.
    With a neutral Republican Spain being I believe much more likely than allied Republican Spain (but they might decide to take part to the end of the war, after Mussolini falls)

    1) I don't think a failed coup would lead to a USSR-aligned Spain. It's much more likely that Azaña would keep his power without being challenged by Stalinists nor by his Anarchist allies. If they did challenge him they would certainly get suppressed (Azaña would get the support of France and UK, while the Soviet support could not transit through France like in the actual Civil War), plus it would be very difficult to keep unity between PCE/POUM/CNT (the only plausible scenario for me is the PCE supporting Azaña and eliminating left-wing opponents, just like during the actual Civil War). After that there would probably be a slow drift to the right just like in pre-Pétain France (Radicals and so on) and pre-Hitler Germany (Zentrum and so on).
    2) No way France and UK would have let a "Soviet Spain" attack Portugal. They would put enough pressure to convince them to stop the offensive, and at most they would have agreed to minor modifications of the disputed borders. In this scenario, imagining the very unlikely hypothesis in which "Soviet Spain" ignores the Franco-British (and Italo-German) threats, and in which on top of that the USSR keeps supporting this aggressive "Soviet Spain", Churchill and Hitler could perfectly become allied against the red threat.
    3) Why would a Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact include giving part of France to Spain? This doesn't seem to make any sense. Eastern Poland was made of formerly Russian territory, in a 21-year old state of questionable legitimacy, led by a nationalist dictator with imperialist aspirations, threatening Russian(ish) minorities, and recovering these territories meant connecting to Western Europe (although it's not as important as it was in 1919). The case for invading Southwestern France (and integrating Lengadoc to the Catalan Federative Republic??) is much less solid. And moreover it would have meant attacking a major power and pushing USSR into war in 1939: why would USSR have accepted such a risky war for lands which wouldn't even go to USSR but only to one of its (largely independent) ally?

  36. Or, better yet, play HoI3. Even HoI2. #4 was really cool in concept, and I liked the industrial and political mechanics, but the warfare is just unmanageable. I've been playing Paradox games for close to 20 years, and HOI4 was the first one I just ragequit. About two in-game days after the war started. It's a damn shame, because it was otherwise so very promising, but I just couldn't do it.

  37. It is very clear that Spain would remain neutral… Despite the characteristics of the Spanish Civil War… the Spanish left is VERY pacifist and Internationalist (which is why going to war was NOT allowed by the Spanish Constitution of 1931). On top of that, the PCE had as main points of their agenda to release the Spanish Colonies (point accepted by this party when joining the Komintern), so no possible colonisation of the rest of the nations surrounding Spain.

  38. How convenient!
    They added a new DLC that not only adds one more faction to the civil war, making it 3 like Kaiserreich…
    But they also added


    Edit: I made thos comment before watching the intro, I am a f*cking genius

  39. I think that Hitler still invades the Soviets + Spain. The Spanish army couldn't have stopped him and dashing his panzers across a weak Spain seems like exactly what he would want to do.

  40. I love this scenario, I think that Spain wouldn't go communist I think it would stay democratic and probably be neutral or would be attacked by Germany like the low countries or Scandinavia mainly to get to Gibraltar and with Spain in taters I think it would be easy cutting British supply through the med. I think that this could change Africa and Greek campaigns but overall I think the allies would still be victorious but may have the fall of the Suez momentarily before a reconquest. Plus Malta probs would fall but apart from that things relatively the same.

  41. What would have happened if Captain Kirk and the crew of the U.S.S Enterprise were not operating under a "no intervention " directive?

  42. Nazi Germany whould have attacked Republican Spain if Spain had no co-operated greatly (like allowing passage of tropps, suing ports and airports..).
    If The nationalist leader had joined the Axis powers 1940 UK & Britain whould have attacked her later.
    Staying out of WW2 was Francos main (or only?) contribution to Spain. He was only in the game as a commander of the African armys and ex punisher of strikers in Asturias.

  43. Idk about the USSR siding with the fascists in the late 1930's. The USSR wanted Spain to be a liberal republic and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was a measure to buy time from the inevitable war with Germany.

    Also, you don't mention what would happen with the large number of militias that are loyal not to the Republic but to their political parties and unions. These were formed in the early days of the coup and in this timeline, they would still exist. The decision to reorganize and restructure the army was made before the airlift of the Army of Morroco. The militias were doing most of the fighting until October of 1936 where the first Mixed Brigades were getting put into the field.

    With no protracted civil war to hang over the radicals' heads, what is there to keep the CNT, left-wing PSOE/UGT, and anti-Stalinist communists from consolidating the Spanish Revolution. The majority of the takeover of factories and land occurred in the first weeks of fighting. The Spanish Communist Party was a minuscule part of the Spanish Left and it took months of USSR aid and being abandoned by France, to get them in a position to have any real influence.

  44. Man, as much of a pipe dream as it might be, I'd love to see at least a short commentary from Indy on Kaiserreich and its world.

  45. @world war two: the coop with HoI 4 was great, double down on it and use it for your map animations as you progress through the war. It will be some effort for the HoI 4 team to recreate the exact maps all the time, but it really is a blessing. Additionally, don't forget to edit the background map on the green screen behind the big chair, this gives more immersion. Keep up the good work.

  46. My family was refugeed by the Civil War. I think about the alternate history a lot. This was a thoroughly enjoyable watch!

  47. Or what if the axis forces invaded Spain after the fall of France in 1940, taking Gibraltar and cutting off the British from the Mediterranean sea and forcing them to go around Africa to get supplies from India.

  48. I don't think a Soviet Spain in any timeline was at all possible. The Soviets only begrudgingly supported the Catalonian Communists (who were mostly a mixture of anarcho-communists, anarcho-syndicalists, and libertarian socialists) because the Soviets viewed them as being marginally better than the fascists and liberals. In fact, the Soviets detested the Catalonian Communists enough that they eventually abandoned them in favor of a hopelessly tiny Marxist-Leninist enclave that was really too small to be of any consequence. Therefore, if the republic defeated the fascists, then the republic would immediately wage war against Catalonia, and would most likely succeed in conquering it (though, in our timeline, the unwillingness of the republican liberals to form a unified front with Catalonia and instead choosing to fight Catalonia in a three-front war contributed significantly to the republic's defeat). Thus, a liberal Republican Spain would either remain neutral due to the poor condition of its post-war military or would only give milquetoast support to the Allies for the same reasons.

  49. I can't express my disappointment in this video. I was very interested in your serious but now you just blew it for me. I was very close to donating to your efforts to bring historical value to the videos you have produced…..not anymore! You spend donations on a fictional, "game playing" pieces of bullshit! You think your games and hypotheticals should warrant donations? What are you… idiots? You spent about 30 minutes on your games, while at the same time your real time time videos are half that. I realize it now , it's about money for you and yours. Nothing about the truth, how are gamers anywhere close to the truth. So….fuck you and play your games. fucking games! I am a vet and I despise your fucking narrissicism and I doubt any of you ever served yourselves. You disgust me!

  50. Sanjurjo choose to fly in a small biplane and he insisted that he need all the luggage that he wants to bring on board. "I need to wear proper clothes as the new caudillo of Spain."
    He died in a crash because the plane was to heavy.

    And there was even a bigger plane availibel.

  51. What if the Spanish African army can't be send over to mainland Spain?

    After the fall of the coup's forces in mainland Spain, Franco would declare Spanish Morocco an independent fascist dictatorship.
    With basically no industry and only the forces that follow him, he insures his rule in northern Morocco.
    While the republicans on mainland Spain outgun and outproduce him, they can't easily crush his dictatorship. With their superior navy, we would see some landings of forces in northern Africa to crush the rebellion in the future. Italy and Germany would not send help to the fascists, because they will certainly loose in the near future.
    But up to this point, it would be highly interesting to see, what the spanish fascist, falangist dictatorship in northern Morocco would look like.
    Would they be stable? Would the Africans rise up against this fascist regime that opprsses them in this world even more, because in some kind they have to secure their power? And if the Africans rise up, will this crush the fascists and form the Spanish Morocco into a hell of partisan action?
    We could see some charismatic leader from Morocco unite the african militias under his rule and declaring their independence once more (as in the Rif War just 15 years ago).
    After all, the republican spanish forces would will win and reconquer north africa again and again.
    But how would this effect the rest of Europe and the world?

    Would the fascists in Iraq still rise up, if they had seen that Germany did not send help to a previous fascist uprising?
    So many questions and possibilities

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