What does the Brexit vote mean for Scottish independence?

What does the Brexit vote mean for Scottish independence?

So if we sort of take a step back and
look what’s happening in in recent history obviously we had our own
independence referendum in 2014 where by a margin of 55% to 45% we voted to stay in
in the UK and at that point the UK Although we sort of knew by that point
that we may be heading for a referendum about European Union membership and we were very much still in in the European Union So we voted to stay in the
UK Fast forward about 18 months nearly two years and obviously we had the June
2016 we had the the referendum about the UK’s membership of the European Union
and we voted to come out of the European Union as the UK Now the the problem with
some of that is that when you look at voting patterns in Scotland actually we
voted in Scotland very much to stay in the European Union by almost a factor of
2 to 1 so 62% of us voted to stay in the European Union and 38% of
us voted to to come out So in other words as the politicians would say we are being dragged out of the EU against our will and against the expressed
wishes of the people of Scotland So that’s that’s the background to it that
you know the Democratic outrage is the First Minister would say and they you
know and and you know there is kind of good reason for that I think and I think
what she calculated was that because almost two-thirds of us had voted to
stay in the European Union and the fact that we were being dragged out would
mean that people would support her call for another independence referendum but
in actual fact that that hasn’t happened and both support for independence
hasn’t really changed significantly since 2014 and support for a second
independence referendum so for actually holding another referendum has never
been above in the short term has never been above 50% so in other words I think
the government in Scotland sort of miscalculated actually the strength of
voters feelings So even though I think for a lot of people well they don’t want
to be that they are being dragged against their will it didn’t necessarily
mean in their minds that what they wanted as a result of that was another
independence referendum So because of the election that happened this year and
the fact that the SNP lost quite a few about 21 22 seats the at least in the
short term there isn’t going to be another independence referendum in
Scotland Scotland didn’t vote for Brexit it was 62% for Remain 38% which was
higher than some expected for for Leave and that was across the whole
country that you couldn’t point to any council areas where there was a leave
vote and according to opinion polls those numbers have gone up a bit around
66% remain So I think the sort of constitutional political issue of
Scotland being very out of sync with English and Welsh politics at least is
is quite an important one I mean before the referendum the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that she felt constitutionally Scotland should have a
veto as one of the constituent parts of the UK and not surprisingly that wasn’t given The last sort of 15 20 years has seen a real sort of political
sea change particularly in Scotland and I don’t think the while that is the case
that was a UK referendum and you go by the UK results in a sense sort of
politically and almost culturally we have sort of moved on from that now and
you can’t expect well you can you can try and implement the results as it
pertains to the whole of the UK You can’t expect to do that without people
in different parts of the UK saying well hang on a sec
we didn’t vote for this and whether that’s in, whether that’s in in
this case Scotland or Northern Ireland now in Northern Ireland at the moment
you know there is no that you know as we speak there that there is no government
so finding their voice in this is a little bit more difficult Whereas we in Scotland have a have a government we have a strong government
it’s been in power for 10 years It’s extremely pro-European it there
wasn’t a single politician and a single politician from the SNP either
Westminster Holyrood or in local government who during the campaign stood for leaving Some of them since the European since the referendum have come
out as levers but during the referendum not a single SNP politician despite the
fact that about a third of SNP voters voted to leave which is a separate issue
so it isn’t unsurprising that the weight of the Scottish government which is I
think sort of taken much more seriously these days was put behind you know the
position of you know we really don’t want this to happen this is a democratic
outrage and if we can’t stop it happening then what jolly well gonna try
and have our voice heard and make sure that the the sort of saying earlier the
different kind of political and economic conditions in Scotland are taken into
account during the negotiation period

31 thoughts on “What does the Brexit vote mean for Scottish independence?

  1. The democratic outrage is that the UK ceded constitutional powers to the EU without any mandate from the people in the first place. UK membership of the EU was achieved by deceit and sleight of hand and very clearly lacks any legitimacy. And please don't give us the rubbish that we voted in 1975 to join the EU, we did not, we voted to join a trading bloc pure and simple. The other piece of nonsense is that as the UK is a monarchy the monarch has the right to cede constitutional powers, in the late 20th and 21st century ? It is not a monarchy but a constitutional monarchy, also known as a crowned republic -get it ! The people are sovereign, not parliament.

  2. i think some governments need to realize just because a country voted remain doesn't mean they want to cut off from another country all together i voted remain in northern Ireland doesn't mean i want a united ireland its the same for scotland you might not like the result but not gonna ruin the country even more!

  3. These are not Scottish people giving an opinion. Please stop these silly posts. Break up WHAT UNION. A ONE SIDED ONE? YES IT IS. its now higher than 55% for leave the UK and you rigged it last time so sorry 45 to 55 is bollocks.

  4. The fact 4 years after the Scottish Independence we are no better in the union, power are being taken away from Holyrood and have no say over leaving the EU is a raw bitter deal. Let's run to join the EU not leave it. The economy is already struggling.

  5. During my time in Scotland working for a research and analysis company I was forced fairly unwillingly to seek answers to subjects related to independence. My main area is customs and treaty obligations. An area I worked in with the Lithuanian government during the period before and after the republic's accession to the EU.

    My first examination was to the cause and history of the demands for autonomy in Scotland. It revealed a very long standing level of support and a steadily rising one. Clients wanted me to say it was a short term burst that would fade away. Clearly they were culturally predisposed to that claim and open to anyone who would give them that answer to their question, I the deliverer of unhappy news. Polls that covered the question from the 1960s till 2013 showed a clear cultural shift towards independence. The underlying trend of support form around 10% in the 1960s to around 50% by 2013. So slightly less than 1% per year. 0.8% as an average. The death and birth rates in Scotland line up to imply that as one generation dies away they are being replaced by people more likely to support independence. A generational shift.

    A social effect of such shifts is that as an attitude approaches becoming the majority view, they opposing view becomes more aggressively resistant. This can be even strident if the institutions of the country feel an existential threat to their position. In Scotland this was seen in the actions of the media, wealthy business class and established political parties. All rules were thrown aside in a campaign to protect their status as dominant entities. The behaviour of the media shocked even me a person who grew to adulthood in the USSR and experienced a blanket of state sponsored propaganda. If anything I found the British media somewhat crude.

    Soviet media already knew we did not trust them and acted accordingly whereas the British media was blatant. They seem to show even now an expectation of acceptance of their statements as unquestioned fact. It was annoying to have clients show me headlines from newspapers requiring that I show them a hardback copy of the UN Conventions on Treaty Law. Though within a few months I had a enough information compiled I was able to produce an internal bound document full referenced with excerpts of the relevant documents, that refuted virtually all news paper and TV stories. I could predict from the headlines what answers to repeat yet again with reference to a particular page.

    There is no doubt in my mind that Scotland will forcefully push for independence again in the medium term. Even without clever manoeuvres by the SNP the underlying support will increase for independence. As it becomes the majority opinion the yearly rise may increase as the class segregated nature of Scotland will place people still supporting the UK in a minority within their community. The human desire to align with their group could produce an up surge likely to panic the UK establishment. That will be a dangerous point that could see the UK government egged on by their local supporters to think violence could crush their opponents.

    I have seen a foolish belief that the desire for independence is an invention of the SNP rather than that party being a product. The actions of the so called unionists seems to imply they believe that destroying the SNP and simply refusing to allow the question of Scotland's future to even asked, will end the matter for good. If there is a more efficient means of creating the circumstances for serious civil unrest I do not know them.

  6. The current Scottish Government is triple mandated to hold a 2nd Independence Referendum. It's now just a question of when it'll be called.

  7. With or without Scotland the UK is better off out of the EU.
    Car manufacturers have been moving to the EU for years.
    Mini, Land rover for example.

    The EU block is degrading in trade for many years, and its only 15% of world trade. Country after Country in the EU have become debt dependent on the EU and imf so all of the EU will collapse into a single state.

  8. what ever decision u make as scotland its up to u
    if u decide to brake away as ur own country we aust will follow
    we want to be free as well were sick of them brits taking our money as we need it not them
    they dont live here there filthy ppl come here abuse rape virgins and dump kids they dont want others to know like in there family to keep kids secret etc
    were sick of em

  9. STOP saying dragged out you fuckin moron the country voted as the UK…THE UK the last time looked Scotland was in THE UNITED KINGDOM….THE UK….GREAT BRITAIN what part of that do you morons NOT understand…soon sturgeon will be kicked out of office…quicker the better…she is only in power because of the greens…

  10. Let’s get a couple of English people or at best aristocratic Scottish schooled and raised in England to explain why the SNP will fail.

  11. I stayed in the union only because that meant being part of EU, But now no way. this time would vote for independence so we can stay in the EU, but we still need to watch this space.

  12. Woohoo Bring on Brexit, onwards and upwards 😀😀😀🤗🤗🤗🤗 Canny fuckin wait yaasssssssssss ya beauty 🙌🎉🎉🎉

  13. Now it is time to leave the UK and TO TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OWN COUNTRY or the chaotic Brexit can not only ruin England but also Gibraltar, Scottland, Nothern Ireland, and Wales: Even the British Pound cant survive.😃😃😃

  14. What a bunch of ingrained cowards! Scotland is subsidised more than any other country in the UK . Every man , woman and child from cradle to the grave. It is an isolated, marginalised community at the northernmost fringe of the UK with an economy held afloat by the remainder of the UK. It is singularly responsible for the biggest banking collapse in world history- RBS and Bank of Scotland. RBS is still in public ownership having cost (predominantly the English) taxpayer £45 billion. If England had any sense it would utterly isolate this bunch of fractious fanatics. There but for the grace of god goes Scotland. (Scotland the brave ??? what a sick joke.)

  15. You will find that a big chunk of the yes voters like myself voted to leave the EU. That's 100% independence. I seen what the EU done to my Fishing Town so bring back Jim Sillers A True 100% SNP Independence Man And Politicians Like Him To Take Us Out Westminster And Brussels. If Not It Will Be An Easy Win For The Unio nist Because Of The Huge SNP Loss To The Tories In Moray And Gordon And Me Personally I Think The EU Is Far More Dangerous Than Westminster

  16. One of these scenarios I've seen is that the seperation takes place, and then so does the demand of Scottland to leave England's side. England says they no longer have the right to do so. A cold civil war begins, the proxy wars begin with the usual label of terrorism. From there another chance split into other possibilities.

    Another likelihood is that sure enough Scotland leaves and fights free to be independent. Similar things happen but the war becomes outright recognized as outright conflict. EU decides not to house Scotland despite it being one of the reasons for this leave, but as such Northern Ireland seeks not to stand by. At least not all. The IRA becomes likely active again with Ireland involvement of backing the Scottish cause of leaving, and the possibility, official or not, the further separation of the EU.

    Like the USSR things further fragment, but unlike the USSR it doesn't happen as fast, as such a closer mingling of those dead set against the various beliefs and lashing out, similar to some of the rioting in the United States but on a multi national level. The claims of painted Terrorism move others into accepting its the way and thus IRA gains a further foothold of notoriety among others and previously secretive arms distribution becomes wide open and unstoppable. United States aid becomes a question as to who it will back if any similar to the EU.

    The series of potential outcomes hold a high common likelihood. What some would consider something of a Civil War that could start with the modern day's tendencies of blurred battle lines and proxy wars that eventually fold further into a line war of old. A war of two nations that at likely some point simply must go cold for the heat of the ideal that such modern nations side by side having such a war un mediated speaks volumes of just how united most other unions can ever hope to achieve in the long run. The world watches and it's far from being influence when similar signs show themselves.

    Similar to some story telling of a game franchise known as Front Mission, nations form what in some ways they already have begun, financial block unions while the proxy wars escalate.

    In all this, a strong trigger point and likelihood over all, a point in which will determine so very much, is that we see that British and Scottish flags fly against one another in conflict, and perhaps how that will press upon the motivations of joint projects of ideals like the ye old BlackWatch and where it's members choose to take sides in a very ugly break up and further motives of conflict in fight as to who has right to what in their joint armed forces.

    The tree of possibilities, though deeply concerning, has been something inspiring for me to write about. A universe of the very likely outcomes that can be set in the motion with the slightest of choices where those thought to be practically so combined in tradition it was impossible to see, yet their flags can fly against one another in anger further fueled over circumstances that make it yet another bloody divorce war that some many not know weather or not to call it a Civil War.

  17. People were told in no uncertain terms that a vote for No was a vote to remain in the EU. What a lie! Ruth Davidson stood there and repeatedly said that we couldn’t go for independence because we’d lose our Eu membership. This was a huge part of why many many people voted no.

  18. “That hasn’t happened” (support for independence). – this is a Lie. It has been above 50% and there was no miscalculation. Why is OU jumping on the “No we don’t want indyref2” bandwagon? Dissapointing, not even a range of views, just No No No No.

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