Reviewing the Financial Market KLSE & SGX Trading

Reviewing the Financial Market KLSE & SGX Trading



if you have any questions or suggestions you can put it in the chat box that's based right here on the screen on the right side of your screen so if you have any queries usually which I do get at the end of the webinar related to stocks or particulars you know answers that are you know needed by an investor or trader so you can click on that particular link and post your queries so I think we are going to start now and let's begin this particular webinar yes so my name is lovely Shama and I welcome you all on today's webinar reviewing the year 2018 SGX and key LEC friend this webinar basically are very honest you we thought of having a webinar starting with the calendar next year 2019 but I insisted that we should have this particular webinar around Christmas so that we can at least share some insights and improve the learning curve because to see a particular trend that's what the webinar is about reviewing the year so it's like basically a hand side that once you are over it it's easy to comprehend the particular trend while going forward when you talk about future trend it becomes a bit difficult so by reviewing the year 2018 I completely do not mean that what has happened or what is you know the perspective why it happened that would be not very smart to talk about because that thing has already happened in the past so what we are going to discuss today is that what are the key takeaways from 2018 and how this particular your has shaved off for equities market specifically from SGX and tLAC perspective both markets are down I've been there in Singapore and KAC back in September I think first week and I briefly remember one third or fourth of September we had of a presentation lined up with number of clients over there and in Singapore Malaysia was very specific that the year or the particular time horizon is not good because the kind of volatility expansion we have seen in 2018 especially especially on the start of the year what a1 and last quarter which we are seeing since September October somewhere between that so our basic focus will be on how market is and what can be taken out of this market as a trader what are the particular sector so our basic idea here to go through is that we will be talking about market will see some kind of technical indicators that are over there and try to reach the breadth of the market then we will look at sectors which I have prepared just an hour ago so they are updated to date as of today's market close so we will be looking at different sector both hchc LEC and then will move forward with your queries by the end of it I may try to give some stocks but given the overall trend being the midterm to positional trader I tend not to exaggerate the stocks because the risk word and all the things need to be in the favour of a trader so let's start these are some of the awards and accolades of the company and I've just put down there so you can have a look at it and understand that we have a very good client piece in SG my and other Asian countries like Hong Kong Arab enemy rates are catered to them and these are some accolades that we have to see and these are some of our associations on the national international level which comes with a lot of experience at overhead so suddenly you see a chart and you would be understand or you will be looking at it how come what chart it is at what is available see how since we are all time clock which is going on so I try to keep it very crisp and quick so let's start with something as in but this is 2018 basically and that's what the chart in fact some of my things which I have shared in the PPT are still over here and so we'll start at SGX and a why or how this particular index maybe is down or is it in a downward move or where it is going on how the global markets are shaping so to be very simple in terms because I will not try to complicate it here but the this particular slide which I have shared in my first this is nothing this is if you can read this this is Singapore's shitty key that I said was your earlier and I have taken just 2013 to 2018 because that's the data I basically need and these are something very important apart from all the technicals one can gauge apart from all the analysis moving averages charts I think it is important to gauge what the break doctors the market is saying because honestly or the trends in the market are basically a result of say economic indicators macro macro events so if I'm like any particular point of time I would say that this particular trend over here developed on this particular trend from 2003 they love so these are something which were bounded and happened due to some major economic event that happened at this point of time we don't care about the tops and that is something which is not a trader or an investor should become concerned even me as a particular trade or second considering your horizon maybe it's like three months six months or a year so for me a top in the market is not important because they often you know happen but what important for us as a trader is to catch these economic events or these particular factors that happen into the market so how would you try to relate it at this point of time is firstly let me get back to you to the presentation again and you'll be able to understand all this right so this is SG gtp advanced photo and quater and this is 2014 and this is 2018 now you look at the kind of contraction that was seen in this particular data over here and over here those are the two points where you need to be worried that what is the movement of the market or how the market is going to react to it there is no significance at this particular point of time because the breadth or the larger thing that is going to affect or have an impact of on a market is certainly the macro factor some in exports knowing all exports especially when we're talking about in the ports or tourism or say of you know inflation data or what is the cash reserves all those things institutional things that one is able to analyze or GDP things like that industrial production for the matter of fact so at this point of time if you see there was a basically contraction and that's what we are able to look at in this you look at this 2011 2013 2014 you look at this large consolidation that has happened into the market so when we talk about what is going to happen we certainly don't know but something interesting that happened into the market was we cannot catch the specific bottom but you look at this 2017 quarter – and 2017 right the start on the first two quarters were very crucial so that was one particular economic event that happened at that point of time that the GDP year on your saw a very high growth and it topped that around a level and it suddenly dropped in battered grew for 2017 so to give you a perspective how that reflected onto the market is somewhere let's check our charts and we looked at write this so this is 2016 now let me get back to specifics so that is particular horizon that we are looking at and 2013 2014 to 2018 and if you look at this point of 2016 you know so as I said while showing you this that we need to catch these macroeconomic events so you look at this so that was a kind of a base building that you would say now the ad water three we won't know that what has actually happened over here or we will be able to catch it but yes there were a good amount of warning at least if not here that market is going to be hammered at least here there was a warning that yes the revival has been fast I mean almost if you look at it it's just 2/4 from q3 16 to q1 17 and that's what you can see just sit into the market q3 of 2016 over here and q2 of 2017 so that is one thing that you can look into market and the kind of movement from there you look at this that's 30% return so we are not worrying to catch a market bottom or something like that but we need to understand that major market movement are driven by the economic events and those big economic events are needed to be seen so what happened then suddenly all this is good in a hint side everyone can prove it because it has happened so what happened is let's get back to UM this is something very layman why I'm showing you because GDP data is available with everyone or you just have to go on to investing or something like that this peaked out ok q4 2017 you see this gradual drop over here so it's like a curve shape that shows kind of flattening out and then going downward and it is again in a downward momentum so simple as that that is 2018 and you look at this it's a downward market well this is to give us a relative benchmark or a little bench ma or relative performance something relative measures so there you can measure macroeconomic human tours no big things like GDPs to the overall market so that gives you a kind of a momentum that you can see onto the chart as well so let me show another slide and I think I would be able to prove you something right I think this is Singapore no oil exports most of the exports of the Singapore like 33% are basically manufacturing machinery equipment then we have gold jewelry than oil especially mineral fuels and technological achievements going forward all these things sums up to be a major part of the export oriented countries such as Singapore so this is no oil exports month or month and you look at this this is monthly data so just yes now you can look at it this is June 2016 this is June 2017 and the basic thing you would like to look at it as and there is not much off if you say friend so if you talk about non-oil exports month or month we are seeing broader range for the market to be 10 to almost minus 10 so that is on the higher part that is on the lower part so let's look at it in a perspective too so June 2016 7 September 2017 and jus 2018 so all the tops were declining so on the upside of the exports which were usually at that kind of a pace back in 2017 or 2016 2 compared with 2014 we have been seeing a decrease while the exports do jump but at minor level you know negative levels of minus 10 so yeah so if I talk about June 2010 were 2017 let's look at September 2017 and is all toys right so let me put a line over here that is September 2017 now June 2016 2016 this is shown right and last time it was June 2018 so that is June 2007 2018 so the difference if you like to see and December 2014 let's mark it is as well this bigger bar you're saying somewhere around March 2015 so let me get to the March 2015 here you go so you would be able to understand what is happening into the market now consider this as a particular point or a particular chart where you are able to understand that one thing is for sure that the normal exports tends to remain into a kind of range I haven't taken that kind of a data where you know it can be a long term like historically from 1985 1990s but they are into a kind of a symmetry where it goes down minus 10 we see an upward shift when it goes up while most of the time it is oscillating bidding is like 6 or say minus 4 so what the thing here is that extreme values do represent something into the market so like if I'm talking about to us want to talk about 2018 because it has been a beer market for all the world global indices but let's see or what this bar had an impact so suddenly when in March 2015 it jumped up and came down you look at this March 2015 it jumped up and as soon as this particular data dropped and we see again what we got back into consolidation so does the market and most 2015 we have seen a good amount of drops and if I'm not wrong that is when there was no shock related to the Chinese market when most of the gales wear out and there was Australian dollar something collapse due to equities I think that is one point of time we can remember in the history so this is that and how would 2016 certainly something very low on the export side you look at this do in 2016 then while it was oscillating we have had a fantastic bullish run into the markets as soon as this particular point June 2018 came yes it was over here that was one of the bearish moves so these things do have an impact the point is that these things create a big economic trend into the market they have an impact on this flow of the money because nobody would put a lot of money into the market see money moves the market so if I'm talking about when to invest so worried so certainly nobody would want to invest at the peak so somewhere around the bottoms or when there is a good amount of consolidations and we are seeing some of the economic expansion better that what can be reflected into the chart so that this is what is overall here now let's talk about a technical that where we will believe that market is in a downtrend and it will let me let's be very specific there is no hope for now because most of the global financial markets are down most of the US European and Asian indices are down and that is what one can see now how does Singapore is related to that or let me just see if I can give you a yes you need to look at this particular image that I have cropped it because I had multiple workspace open so I hope everyone is able to look at it and understand what I'm trying to say over here so I'll point out something very important in this and I'm getting queries but you can't put it on the check box all right so this is a sti over here this is SP X although this is HSI Singapore handsome against Singapore against a 7500 so that's like a mix of Asian and Western market and both are all of the benchmark indices for example if I were to look at the Asian markets in the perspective I would definitely look at s T is why I would like to establish this particular facts just a sec yes so this is a sti Singapore Straits Times Index SPX and it's si by default you if anyone is from Malaysian market you must understand that when we are talking about STI and HS IVR I particularly if not you I particularly take into account not just my own Indian method but jealousy as well or Nikkei as well or other market it can be like Taiwan or South Korea or Thailand Indonesia so if you look at this so all the markets bottom at around 2008 2009 that was not a new story something but there is a specific decoupling if you look at it so you look at this this is 2018 for your information this is 2018 the why it is important is that there is a kind of a lag fact there is a kind of a reading effect that you will be able to see the scale on the right is for hcd hcd oranges STI and this is HSI and of course the purple one so SP X so what I'm trying to pull it out here is that you see this particular talk now this is not something important because all the markets made a power path so yes we saw decline and then let me choose a different color so you will be able to understand grey yes yes so let me it is alright yes so there was a top in all the three indices here so we have had a good amount of synchronicity or between all the markets and then there was a top over here in HSI and STI both the orange and the light green one so they came down and it was a significant positive 36 hundred to 3200 so it's like almost 400 pounds that's a 10% correction and HSI from 31,000 – levels to 27,000 something that is a 4000 so it's like a 10% slide over there so the synchronicity between the Asian markets was very much good and of course it has to be because one of the biggest exporters for Singapore is a China most of the things we produce and we export is going to China and that was the start of the trade war so of course US was benefiting so this there was a major decoupling between the US markets and Asian markets usually what happens this is where people are trapped now many would come to you and tell you that SPX is going higher and you should be investing you look at your market it is down 10% you look at Western markets it's up almost from say 3400 to 3800 so probably at this point of time you think your market is 10% down so it's an opportunity because the Western market is up from previous swing or almost say 10 11 percent so it's a kind of a trap it's not something as an opportunity or a lost opportunity where you can enter again because that's it the phenomena is called as a decoupling and when money moves the market so when the Asian markets were down I should have known that yes the money which was into the Asian market is getting out and where it is going it was going into SPX for for the time being now you would say that yes everyone knows that because it was the trade war of course it's as simple as that that there was a trade war but how could we know that it's a you know something so this happened over here that there was a major decoupling now you look at this and we'll be able to understand this is somewhere between 2018 around March or June right so if this particular thing happened when market was almost at 3200 so let me see if I can't put it what this yes yes around June so you would be able to understand that this point of time when global markets they're up as as SGX or STI was be split out now let me give you another perspective into it how would you be able to understand this that there is nothing too much to comprehend in this chart you would yourself get the idea what I am trying to say that if I am able to understand this market for us the point of support remains only one that is twenty-five fifty to twenty six hundred there are intermediary supports in this market and these are the bounds so it's as simple as that given all the analysis that we have done we have look at GDP we have to cut oil exports they have a look at SPX HSI how they are behaving and how our market is related with HSI while SPX continue to rise but that – if you notice this particular market came down now while we were already down ten percent now another ten percent that is almost 20 percent HSI SPX is now almost also down say six hundred points or five hundred odd points so that is almost fifteen percent so the point to look at here is that when you look at that market in that just yes so perspective you keep simply look at it where you need to enter and when you need to get out and that is what I particularly shared with everyone any one of us here belong to that particular presentation will be shared so we were somewhere around over here it was September 2008 somewhere here so most of the people while looking at Western markets they thought that we are away from what another top and we should be moving forward that's how market reacted and we had a very fruitful discussion that it's in a downtrend so yes at this point of time we are in the bearish momentum there is no doubt about it there is no question about it because that's the broader range for your market has been since 2010 so something which has happened for 2008 to 2018 that your market has been in a downward momentum or a sideways momentum for now its downward so you know when to get out of the market or when you need to enter into the market so currently at 3046 if you are asked to investor onto the market I believe that there are much better opportunities that you may get you certainly cannot expect that this is the final point but history says that around 25 2600 markets are very good and once we go below this point of support that is 29 50 54 which has been a support in the past you know where it has to go and the kind of velocity when this support is broken let me just show you how this works look at this there was a support over here so we have seen good upward move but that was overall bullish move in all the world market but when this support is say broker you look at this how fast almost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 weeks to two and a half month and it fell from 3,000 to 2,500 that's almost 20 course it is correction this held on to here there was a clear resistance and now this is again company coming as a point of inflection when the trend may change so when I say Singapore and when I think about twenty nine fifty below that I am bearish there is no question because usually that has been the range look at the explained it was pro/con it played around this and then again there was a periscope that was one significant supports and it acted well but for now over here white acted because global markets were largely up you look at you looked at China which was going at around 8 percent 9 percent growth seven point five five or eight eight to nine that kind of arranged growth so of course when our country is one of the biggest exporter to China so that was something we understand but overall here 2011 it was broken and this is 2018 the global markets are very much down there is no question about it and just as if I think my audience yes I hope it is clear now yes I think there wasn't any error on my side it was regular microphone or something so yes so below twenty nine fifty I think the market is going to go down this is a classic beer rich market and to give you another look at it why it's classic beer market let me show you a cyclic perspective I have shared the same that everyone now when then it's something visible on the chart so there is sorry so whenever the long bottoms are made or you know connection is seen into the market and everyone is trying to jump into that kind of levels where you need to so that's the long-term moving average and I've applied it on a daily chart let's put it us off fifty days and another example of simple moving average and we'll make it but 200 days yes so this is a weekly chart and if you are able to understand that there is a kind of very strong support and resistances that has been made on the charts so whenever there is a usually in this technical analysis it's called a gold cross or that cause across 50 days had made 200 days and it's and how it plays out there's another story because there is a lab to it a very big lag so by the time you are able to understand what the signal is the fading scenario has already changed so over here we have had a positive cross that lasted for almost say 78 years since 2001 2002 so over here prices we're up then there was a positive cross of 50 and 200 days and the market went out then there was a death cross but by the time it happened we were largely at bottom so yes there was an ad into this then again when we have had a positive cross you look at this market jumped up and we again we're off the bottoms the meant of there was a cross over here it was right at the bottom so we were not getting signal and again so the point here is the convergence of these two moving averages is very very late and it is not yet seen but if you look at the daily chart it has it can be seen that right so considering your short-term perspective you talk about one or two years or so there was a clear death cross over here and there was a positive cross over here so this all phenomena lasted for almost two and a half years again we have seen a positive cross from 4:30 through 2016 – quarter – 2018 again two years so the last correction lasted almost for one and a half to three 15 two to three six to two years and we have just seen this now I don't believe that it has to be two years or one and a half years of not doing the exact numbers but yes you need to be aware of this particular thing that there is a bearish trade since market is below its long-term moving averages and mean is one of the best prediction the future of future that can be done now coming on to other important point let's just put que el se as well and this is a bar chart yes that's a KFC chart and goes way back to 1983 for me again same it's the same thing that we have been discussing in hgx doctor there are two broad ranges that both market respects for last few years so for Kayla C it has been like 1902 a 1520 to under unless there is some significant change in the economic economics of this country so 1600 is somewhat much better support force elac so that's what you are able to see this bounds particularly here so yes for a short term you can say that we may see some kind of a relief rally or because that's the a law of demand that is coming in and every time market hits this yes this level we do see a point where there is pullback that takes this market on a higher trajectory so this point we are seeing this support to have that kind of an importance where we may see some kind of a support that can come in and yes there can be above SPAC so to give you an overall range that how much it should be so the usual momentum comes back to 1720 1730 level once that is taken out that may change the whole story for que él se but for now we don't believe that it's a long-term upward momentum that can be seen from this bottom but yes maybe we may be going into a sideways consolidation that is 4k LSE so let's come on to the most important aspect which I wanted to serve everyone let's start with SGX and so this is ft sc/st all the important sectors that are there on Singapore then we'll discuss the KLA c1 and very important thing for you to see this and understand why might be a portfolio is found why might be your stock that you are holding is down why your portfolio is not working so this thing I think is something which also see and everything this is a total return so if you have invested for 2000 since 2017 first chan 2017 only two years okay because if I go back then your return would be of course positive so and usually traders are not that long enough to hold they do but keeping this perspective only for two years gives us something very realistic in terms of number and something which is very close to present so I have taken it from q1 2017 you can look at it over here January or 2017 through one so this all starts from this and that's a total return so how much return you would have got if you invested in Jan 2017 we take that to zero he may sit to zero and see what are the returns very important for you to know that we don't want to know what is of enough for now what is this talks or what is a scepter that you need to be available see it's not about the returns it's about the risk that you are going to trade because that is the sole reason you survive into the market and that is one of the important thing that you know describes how much your life as a trader or an investor would be what would be your returned what would be your gains if you are investing into the market so you look at this from 2017 this orange line this actually hurts me very much because this is too volatile as a trader I mean certain rock from 4% to minus 30% of hope you are able to see this is 30 20 10 5 10 20 30 35 16 what is this orange line that's almost down – 55 % i zoom it for you and look at this – 55 course and who actually wants to bear that kind of a loss in the portfolio the point here is these are the losers you want to be away from these are those stocks those sectors that actually gaze down on your portfolio no okay you haven't invested say let's just forget the market of 2017 might just look at 2018 maybe since here this is January let's see if all the markets are not right you ask a trader yes market is down even for me it's a natural phenomena the moment you buy a stock it starts going down rest happens to me as well but you have several parameters as scaling or risk management or if you are going to pyramid the position or if you are going to scale in as the price moves up or you're going to add when it goes down what is your logic behind the investments so let us take about January 2018 who are the worst performers of this year – 55% that's basic materials index – 31 0.26 person over here – 24 point seven seven that's another loser that no one would want to invest in this is blue – 14.3 FTSE small-cap index then we have the comparatively talk of one – eleven point eight seven percent then there is this pink the large-cap index is around 0.2 lipo 6 only winners over here or this and second is green one that is financial index that is straight stance and x2 and then on the third we have the pink one that is FTA CSD large and Mid Cap index so when we talk about which sector you should be investing in suddenly if not the worst they are down almost from 35 percent to 60 percent that means comparatively they are still positive as opposed to – 55 – twenty four point seven seven that is consumer goods that is minus fourteen point three curves you must services index and this is ten point seven nine percent this is health care index so you should be aware from at least these sectors because they are underperforming of course one or two stocks may be outperforming cih edge or some other healthcare stocks that you have bought that might be a very good long-term bet but you don't want to hold on to that because they are going down and you look at this particular section when they went from minus five percent to minus 55 minus 24 minus ten minus fourteen percent they were already negative while these things which were positive of 25 percent or say twenty percent so they are down line 11 so one thing you should able to understand from this is when you creating a long-term portfolio you need to have the winners now how would you say that now let's forget this particular point this particular side of the chart and let's look at this particular chart 2017 one of the best Raleigh's that we have seen in Singapore s 2017 everything was cold so with sectors you look at this green line that starts from here and suddenly tops at this this blue and this purple now these are the three for the where underperforming already my or technicals I mean straight stance index or financial services and makes a large or mid cap they're performing this particular area will tell you why to be aware that when all the markets were up they were already down over here we look at this health care we look at this particular basic materials and all them while they were performing underperforming in 2017 they performed drastically down in 2018 so you now know which are the leaders into this market and to name it it's basically financials and second is Straits Times as an index that means if you are not understanding or if you don't know which sector it is to invest you can simply go out and buy the top ten companies top ten weighted companies say Jordan or DBS or something like that and hold on to them but for a given amount of time and third is large and mid-cap so of course all the things that are going to perform are large and mix so so you don't have that kind of capital and you want to invest into small-cap index but you look at this this is st small-cap index and it is minus fourteen percent now it did perform till 2018 started but it was only a mere ten percent while financial was up 35 percent it was only a ten percent but on the top of this the straight stamps it was up 25% small-cap and nets was hanging around on the lower side no let me just get to you another chart and that is going to give you another perspective and this is relative performance so have taken the base as a straight stance index I don't want to invest and say suppose of stsc index and I need to see which sectors did well so this is again from 2017 chan to December 18 look at the relative performance tilted that means all the losses of 2018 are also adjusted and they are all percentage basis right I hope you understand that so it all started with say amount of 100 so my return if I invested in financials I am getting 100 in 11 so that's a level posted return on $107 or emulation ingots invested or US dollar invested in the market what was the flattened out after 2018 this is why these are flattened out over here because we have adjusted for 2018 loss as well while this is to be a clear this is total return so if you invested back in 2000 is 17 into each of these sectors that is the return you would get right but if you invested only in the sector's based on and what are the performance as compared to straight stance index that is the baseline over here what is the performance FTSE st financials has talked with eleven point nine four percent given the amount of Correction already or deterioration already happened into the markets so again whatever the worst we need to be away from or we need to at least consider risky basic materials then this one that is consumables lightish blue small cap dark blue that is Consumer Services doc black I mean page healthcare then there is – 7% is okay this is st China and minus 13 and minus 14 is over here Consumer Services 13 if you look at health care so only things that were relatively even after the losses of 2018 had seen not much of a loss is FDA CST mid cap then the red one that is industrials and of course industrial is something which you should be looking at in a kind of a investing way because it is a very good index it's provided you have a very decent amount of stocks so I hope this particular relative comparison has made you or given you that the thing which shows as a trader you should know that which sectors now let's go to kale se because I'm getting all right so this is que el SE and the first we will see a relative of solid total returns right this is total returns so suppose if you invested again in January 2017 I liked it over here all the sectors so I hope it is visible to you and let's look at which sectors did well and which sectors this is see you want to know who are the losers and we don't know who are the winners right it is the chart that is going to tell you who are the winners in this particular downfall or in this particular correction and then you will be trying to gauge which are the loser sorts at least for now when we have seen one of the best view bullish rallies since they start of 2017 2017 and sorry and then a amount of Correction so you need to know which sectors did well or miss sectors did not do well so this is busan malaysia plantation here see i as an index construction products and services consumer products financial services industrial production property index and then will simulation excel launching index so which one performed well yes that the one which has seen the most relative growth as a sector and this is financial services and technology are of the sector's that needs to be taken as something which has given a very good return then we have industrial production which is 15% off then this green one that is consumer products of course those one of the less we are all those stocks so these are the sectors and then the dark blue one that is FTSE Bursa Malaysia index itself what are not to be considered look at this – 47 poster construction index – 22 percent property index – 12 person that is plantation index so next time you are going to invest and the market you must see who are the winners and the losers and who are actually going to perform so if suppose there is a bullish rally you know which sector actually performs and look at the kind of a growth so from starting from zero that's a hundred percent growth right then we have this blue line and lately this orange industrial production also was up and this particular financial services index was also up so all these things were up my technology was of course all the way up so you know which are the actually stocks that are going to be strong when the next bull market comes all the other sectors they depend a lot on the numbers so when I said it's g d or Singapore's GDP or Singapore exports so when I'm talking about K Lacy and I need to see so I'm going to look at plantation index then I'm gonna look at property index and last but not the least construction index so what does the construction how is the construction going on and what are the you know what is the data that is coming out so this is something you need to see and this is a total return suppose you invested back in 2017 there is no comparison between a sectors and index so let's move to yeah this is a relative performance and this baseline over here is taken as benchmark awesome Malaysia that is the base of KL CI : improve composite index of course the kind of return you look at this somewhere around 75 percent none other than technology then we have our own financial services 11 percent return and industrial production and services and Greenville that is consumer products and services again so if I am talking about say KFC I has given us a 100 percent return or said 10 percent returns so comparatively if you want to listen to the market and look at which sector did well into a bullish market that is pre of January 2018 so this was of course technology then followed by a financial services and consumer products and services and industrial production but despite the bullish rally if I'm hanging on to these sectors like plantation or as a sector or say property or construction that is not going to give your return so then the market is okay going up and all the things are good money is coming into the market there is a fresh money equity buying is seen sorry yes so equity buying is seen everyone is overly bullish and the targets are coming higher so in this point of time these sectors the underperforming one like construction property or say plantation they do okay I mean minus 5% to minor Plus 5% but when the things are not right you look at minus 48 percent minus 24 percent minus 30 percent so the idea is something which you can go down you can understand from this is whenever the bull market comes or whenever there is a bullish market coming they do happen they happen on the extreme fear or extreme panic IT son answers industrial production are the sectors you should be looking at to at least get some good returns if not in a bearish market since 2018 but if in 2017 the returns where at least 20% 17% or 11% that was almost 75 percent because of the weight age of one or two stocks that performed well and KAC so this is something you can maybe understand that whenever there is a bullish valley bullish market few sectors perform well as an associate of we understood that yes financials or technology or like these sectors do well or tend to do well as in a bullish market and bearish market which sectors we need to obey with so that was the basic idea behind that this is all the trying so 2018 what has actually happened the your started out with volatility there is no doubt about it the two January 31 I still remember January 30 and 31 markets opened after three four days here and the volatility actually was up 216 three percent in first quarter I mean not January itself but yes that kind of arise tells you something that all the big money that was moving the market has seen a no versus so a jump of 416 or 63% CBO a will actually take is itself is one of the biggest indicator that overall undertone overall bullish sentiment has shaken and we might not see a comfortable ride in a bullish zone so that's what happened into one and we'll add a little index in q4 again jumped 137 percent so even if this particular point of time the volatility was coming down from through one and then again but into four we have seen it again up 134 7% and till here it has been not two hundred twenty five percent all these things like trade war tariffs they have created global uncertainty in the last few months around everywhere and drop in cool lastly lately has also affected the overall demand scenario and global markets so that is what has happened in 2018 there is no center alley for now there can be some short-term swings there can be some relief rally that can come in and you may get caught in it but for now there is no Santorelli that is coming in because just the six overall markets are down of this this is a classic consolidated sideways to bearish market and that kind of a drop you see so this is elec and this is yes so this below charters of que el SE and above charters of hcx and you will be able to see the and let's just put let's compare it on same basis so we put it 1,000 horse that is still too much to analyze because that's a lot of bacon that has come again so let's just put the thousand yes so there is a kind of us in synchronicity between these two market and to point it very honestly that both markets see money snow together so both have a kind of pattern that do exist where you can understand that how the money's coming to the market because if we try to analyze I had looked at it in a way that this is 2011 q4 and this is 2011 q4 so let's just take this yes so one thing you must understand that something which reflects fastly or something which he influenced money fastly the HDX of course – for 2014 we look at this there's some queue for 2014 but the kind of up move in SGX and then que el SE and here and somewhere around September that is 2015 and this is 2015 so while it was like flattish over here in 2016 d2 but the kind of momentum we have seen in SGX so when the money is in to the market the markers tend to go up now this is q2 2018 and how beautifully you can look at it in February there was a bottom in kHz as well but this was much sharper and HTX and it came down the straight of it but it sort of gave us a rounded top so money was leaving the market was slowly here while it left the market in an accelerated table manners while it has been in a downtrend in 2018 you look at this it is forming a kovash factor so pattern so then well that was some kind of a decoupling but yes mostly bottoms into these markets are interrelated we have a very good amount of correlation and good amount of synchronization when we talk about it so that is it for now hope the main idea you understood which are the sectors that you need to be out of which other sectors you need to be in the market is still broadly in a very strength there is larger supports and resistances that comes into play when we talk about both market and they are still very far while it is near and in case of Calais sea but in case of SGX we have 2950 as a point of inflection over here so you must be able to understand that these markets they have a very broad range because they are trending in nature this bullish cycle is a kind of a sub cycle so if I'm saying that there are two cycles over here so there are two phases that are placed over here so we might get somewhere here so just to give you an idea that what is this loan is trying to say is there a kind of a bullish scenario that is going to come there is a bullish market coming see I was I'm very vocal in that because when I was back in Singapore and Malaysia back in September and people did asked me there was I still remember this gentleman he clearly said that you are saying that the crash is coming I said I'm not saying that crash is coming I said bullish market or outcome of excessive panic so if we as a trader can and try to identify excessive panic then I have given you that kind of a range when you see excessive of panic or fear that has that will you know manifest itself into a long-term bullish trend so these markets have a range there is a big cycle and that comes into play so if you want to see when it is going so that is 2011 2015 2016 – so you get in what I am saying that you have to be very vigilant and then you are pumping the money into the market so it might not be December I'm not sure if there is a kind of a bottom out process we are saying because we are still in our Lisa loss phase and at least in western markets so at this point given our overall relation with Western Marcus 2012 sorry 2019 January to February you might need to be aware at that point of time that is something very important while at our end we try to identify as costs that are based purely on this kind of analysis but let me show you on what is so if I'm talking about to say some straw 2000 Singapore Airlines in a sideways don't I mean there is no point in buying this stock at least for now it may see some kind of a pullback but there are stocks that trend to decouple themselves like for example I was watching this chart look at this that is a very short-term move but I still while it is a overall bearish the stock there is no trend into it that's a weekly chart answers 2017 it has been down there are points when this stock become or comes in an upward momentum so that is one thing as a technical trader you would want to understand so for example in May it was a good bet for again it came an opportunity in November or October so when I talk about like Singapore there are much much bigger stocks that have manifested themselves into a bearish trend despite some bearishness you can call it as in the kind of a screening process now you have see look at this big tab holdings let me just that's a weekly shot so that's a daily chart and there are points when these stocks do so we don't know if we would be able to catch this but we do get certain point where we believe that it's a kind of bottoming out phases that is so when your broader market is like down in this kind of formation these stocks tend to decouple them away from the market and for example in from sharing Winkler holdings now this stock has a very strong resistance at work almost one point nine eight or nine nine but above that we expect this to go to higher levels so that is something not yes now you will be able to understand why so these kind of no bottoms so they are like for a short term perspective they happen one or two times in a year for example February March these things came December then again March February then again December so this is the rori March and the submerged and very February so after the consolidation they tend to move up and they're bullish Valley is also very good so you must after this consolidation may expect the wind to at least perform well I'm not giving any targets because it's actually based on others through what that need to be accustomed as per the capital so I cannot say bluntly you can go out and buy winter but that's a perspective on how a stock can be seen so for example if I'm talking about that was Singapore's if I'm talking about it there was this one a stock that came to me that's one ask yes but this doesn't look that a and B Holdings so certainly not a stock that can be kept for a long time but there are a point of time when these stocks so it has breached its of what resistance line we need only a confirmation for this stock above four point four three and if that is supposed to happen we may see good upward move but until unless it is below four point four three we don't believe to be a very good bet so that is another way you can look at a stock and using other technical analysis tool so I hope it has been a good knowledge training session I've given you few specific points and those are very important for you to understand over here that financials are both countries must have technology performed well in Malaysia while in Singapore there were other nurses that performed well so your stock need to be from the winners club and from the out performers and of the losers on the performance so if a sector is not doing good and say a bullish market it is going to be doing pathetic in a bearish market if a sector has done good in a bullish market it may correct but the next time the bullish market is going to come maybe next year February or January around that so that is point of time then you need to identify which other sectors that are doing well of course you can contact us reach us and you can go through our website and that is it for today I hope it has been a great session if you have any questions though you can put it out relative to stocks or any query I'll be happy to help you guys share with you whatever I can on that particular stock while we still have two three minutes I have expanded the actually time taken it a bit long okay you can reach us at info at epic or souls got SG info a typical search not my and I think this will be a very good weekend and what I believe you guys must listen to when it comes to investing you have a kind of an art you have kind of sentiment that is a attach to it you want to be part of that particular hoard that is going to get benefits one thing you must remember as a trader or as an investor that it is always darkest before the Sun rises so when I say that but the darkest how would you relate it is extreme fear and extreme panic and before the Sun rises so whenever the market tries to bottom it takes usually a month or two because that is man the smart money comes into it suddenly you want to see a billion dollar money coming in to market in a day and you next to marketers of it is going to take a month that is how the bottom is done and when I say it is darkest before the sunrise we might need to see the darkest still next year I think when everyone can be hopeful what I have shared is how you can identify which are the winners which are the losers and I have shared the sector's which tend to do or tend to outperform by 70% of 40% the overall market but having a concentrated portfolio has its own demerits and has its own disadvantages so you might need to have some kind of diversification coefficient correlation working out some inferential statistics that may help you to create a better portfolio myself lovely Sharma for epic resource hope to meet everyone and may God bless you with all the peace and prosperity have a Merry Christmas thank you so much stay happy

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