October 2019 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

October 2019 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook


Hi I’m Brian Henry the acting fire
weather program manager for Predictive Services here at NIFC in Boise with
your fire season outlook for the late fall and winter months from October
through January. As we head into October fire season has ended across the
majority of the West except for California and except for portions of
the southeast mainly Florida, Georgia Alabama extending all the way north
into the Appalachians. So as we go into the fall months our primary focus this
year is actually going to be on the Appalachians where it’s been much drier
than average over the past several months. A very persistent high-pressure
ridge over that region has lingered into early October producing temperatures are
about 15 degrees above average so the fuels are quite dry and we have the
coming leaf drop that’s gonna be impacting the area so the fuels are
somewhat receptive down there and we are expecting above normal fire potential
for October and November and possibly even into December before some of those
late winter rains come and moisten up the fuels. Looking west into California
Santa Ana season out there for those strong east winds that come down
traditionally most years this year we do have a slightly elevated potential and
those middle and lower elevations across Southern California due to the heavy
fuel loading, however, during late September they did receive some wetting
rainfall from the remnants of a tropical system which helped alleviate that
potential somewhat. Nevertheless due to the heavy fuel loading we are expecting
some slightly elevated potential during the month of October and November and as
we moved to December we look for a return to near average conditions for
the remainder of the winter months. Looking elsewhere across the country you
really have don’t have any sniffing for our weather-related concerns
except for possibly periodically along the Rocky Mountain Front and Colorado
where conditions happen fairly dry for the last couple of months and we do see
brief upturns and fire activity there those events are more weather driven
than fuels driven and the reason for that is that it’s generally this time of
year it takes a lot of wind and low humidity is to get anything to burn
because the fuels are generally not critically dry those events do occur and
in fact the first day of October where we do have a large fire ongoing in
Colorado so we’ll be monitoring that and working
to get that fire out and we’ll be monitoring for elevated potential
elsewhere during other periods of this outlook. We thank you for listening.
We’ll talk with you again next month thank you for watching.

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