Lilia Shevtsova: Russia After Crimea: A Global Challenge (Livestream)

Lilia Shevtsova: Russia After Crimea: A Global Challenge (Livestream)


We are really pleased to have Lilia Shevtsova with us to speak about Russia after the Crimea It’s my pleasure and honor to introduce our today’s speaker She is the the strongest and I would say the clearest voice that we have today in terms of the analysis of Russian politics, but more specifically the international relations with Russia being at the center and today’s Today’s presentation will be dedicated to the latest development in Russia, but also put it in the context of international relations. Lilia Shevtsova, so for those of you who don’t know her, She is an Associate Fellow at the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London she Is this semester the senior scholar at the Davis center and She’s a founding chair of the Davos World Economic Forum Council on Russia’s future Lilia Shevtsova is author of a number of important books publications and articles And I will name just some of them so Yeltsin’s Russian myths and reality Putin’s Russia Russia lost in transition the Yeltsin and Putin legacies Lonely power. Why Russia has failed to become the West and why the West is weary of Russia So again, it’s it’s my Pleasure to welcome Lilia Shevtsova today with us We are happy to have her in our Ukrainian Research Institute seminar series And we are claiming her as ours for those of you who may be don’t know Lilia Shevtsova was born in the wonderful city of Lviv Without further ado, I am turning the floor to Lilia Shevtsova Serhii, thanks a lot well really it’s too early Thank you, thank you for having me It’s pleasure and it’s fun and especially To see in the audience our friends, and you first of all It’s very difficult for me. It’s a great responsibility to give due to the topic in a mere, well, 30-45 minutes, it’s up to you and I’m not going to test your patience of course and I have to admit from the very beginning that I will be dealing with questions that I still I am deliberating on, still am fighting on and to admit that I don’t have solutions to many of them well I have to admit it from the very beginning I decided that I Would structure my talk my narrative in the following way Firstly I will discuss the uniqueness of the Russian system of personalized power secondly What role Ukraine or the Ukrainian factor plays in the Russian system survival and thirdly What is sustainability of the Russian system? Durability? and what are the drivers that undermine it? So let me start with my first issue with my first point the uniqueness of the phenomena. You know frankly speaking When I am observing the Russian system the regime the Institute the political scene opposition the Kremlin behavior I am more and more puzzled and I’m perplexed frustrated Because the moment you see the logic you start to lose the understanding of it and Really, you know after many years of trying to classify Russia and the Russian state and the Russian phenomenon I came to Conclusion that I cannot fit it in to any certain slot or category. Russia defies Any kind of strict Definition and really just imagine, imagine the phenomena that on the one hand yes still is an empire But Serhii knows much more about that maybe half collapse half-frozen empire but on the other hand this is a Petrol state. On the one hand Russia is one of the architects of the world order and you too tradition geography history and Maybe ineffectiveness of the worst it continues to be one of the Key to your political actors and at the same time the system is In decay and the case started not after the collapse of the Soviet Union now. the decay started already after Stalin Stalin left this political scene and his biological his existence and the system In the state of decay degradation demoralisation still is limping ahead producing quite a few of mischief and the system continues to influence not only the international scene But from what we see during the last years is trying to import to influence the internal life of the Western community and certain countries Well and overall The system that is based on one of the very important Driver: militarization. Militarization. and cannot Get out of this militarization cycle and at the same time cannot pursue real militarization and the system that has succeeded to Revive itself to reenergize itself by dumping the Soviet state and then mimicking the liberal standards and norms and then trying to contain them at the same time and The system that came to be an antithesis of liberal democracy That cannot survive without the West and is surviving by second to the west by Penetrating the West that’s really phenomena And having successfully limping along Along well during the last well more than twenty years It was kind of dolce vita for Russia and for the Russian authoritarian regime suddenly the Kremlin and Russia come into conclusion that Well it cannot go ahead like, go ahead like this, so Ukraine Ukraine became a benchmark watershed that in fact ended one chapter in Russia’s history and Began a new chapter in Russia’s history and in Europeans history So The Kremlin tried to make to make Ukraine a systemic factor factor with survival and instead we see that Ukraine has become an anti systemic factor provoking the law of unintended consequences and in fact becoming the factor that has started to destabilize the Russian system So now let me turn to the second question that I plan to discuss – the role of the Ukraine factor and Ukraine in the survivor of Russia and the survival of Russian model of personalized power Several brushstrokes, well I will be putting you know these issues or points in a way of brushstrokes First of all what does Ukraine means for Russia what kind of tests Ukraine Ukraine can become for Russia Ironically I would say and I would argue that Ukraine is not a test for Russia’s imperialistic landings And I would disagree with the person whom I respected very much, with Rosinski who said the famous ….. without Ukraine Russia will stop being an empire I would go, but I would argue that Without Ukraine Russia could be still could be an empire Could be an empire But Russia cannot be traditional Russia So Ukraine for Russia is not apparently the subject of of Area it’s not an area of influence or area of interest. Ukraine is first of all the limb Part or element of the Russian construct and in Russian mentality Ukraine means first of all as I see it in Moscow as I see talking to people in Moscow and in Russia Ukraine is seen as inevitable element of the Russian state civilization so in fact losing Ukraine Would mean that Russians have to start analyzing their own Russian identity Getting rid of Ukraine and Ukraine take a Ukraine champ in the board of the Russian ship means that we russians Have to start finally to fight with the issue of our national identity without Ukraine and There is there is another there is another issue, which apparently is very important for us, but not only for us but also for the post-soviet space Ukraine in fact I Wonder whether you will agree with me or not said hey Ukraine apparently represents totally new totally new model of Post-feminist transition that differs tremendously differs much from the Transition directly from communism in Baltic states in Eastern and in Central Europe it was much easier for poles Czechs Hungarians bolts to make this Transformation from communism into into a new world a new paradigm and especially when there was such a benevolent situation Europe wanted them It’s much difficult to walk through the valley of tears for Ukrainians and for any other nation Bureau reference Russians Because during after the last 20 years we have totally new post communist reality based on merger fusion between power and property Discredit ation of liberal principles and liberals norms that makes the transformation and transition much more difficult much more difficult, so if Ukrainians and there are a lot of Problems that they’re facing today, and I’m not going to day to to describe Ukrainian domestic issues well. It’s not ethical for a Russian Especially from Moscow, but if Ukraine can make it then it will be a path Then it will be an example, then it will be a model for Russians Belarusians for Caucasian Nations and Central Asian Nations to follow so Ukraine is testing a totally different paradigm and model of transition never experienced by Eastern Europe or by other communist states before and So this will be apparently a very important Reality and very important experience to follow to understand and to observe and especially in the situation when Ukrainians are trying to undertake their project their mission in the situation when Europe is not benevolent as it as it was before and Europe is not waiting for that so could the nation start this type of transformation In the situation when the external factor is not that helpful So it will be very important for us Russians to see to another point How Ukraine became a factor of survival for the Russian system and for Putin’s regime Of course well, and here’s of course already unanimous unanimity between us Russian experts on that issue and apparently our Ukrainian colleagues would agree with us Putin and the Kremlin and the whole Russian construct of course had to react to Maidan and Yanukovych regime collapse somehow in some way direction could have been probably more less dramatic for various reasons because well Ukrainians are part of the Russian nation and Well, it’s already kind of excellent for Russian mentality. This is kind of our tribe Because for personally for Putin Ukraine has always been a personal private project And he has invested a lot of energy into Ukrainian project because Ukraine was a key element key element of the concept that Dominated Russian mentality at least four five six years concept of Eurasian Union without Ukraine Nobody could ever dream about Eurasian Union And this idea already is kicked out damned is not on the Kremlin agenda. So there are a lot of factors including the fact that of course the Kremlin and it’s kind of nightmare even to think about repetition of of maidan euromaidan in russia so there were different reasons in motives that could have provoked the kremlin reaction But at the same time at the same time We have to raise again had a new some new information Some you know already understanding of reality you have to raise at the end the question to what extent crimea was inevitable to what extent the russian war with Ukraine was unavoidable For the time being increased we can define at least two factors two factors that made the Russian Ukrainian gambit If I can use this kind of word possible the first Factor is strictly domestic factor in 2011-2012 Putin lost a lot of his approval rating and After elections in 2012 it was a president Who was driving to the Kremlin? along empty streets of Moscow That was hostile to him that was alien to him, and he understood put in a definitely understood he’s a smart political being a smart political animal he had to understand the drama and Maybe tragedy of his situation Moscow against him st Pete against him yes there were only two hundred thousand people on the streets before his elections But still he had to feel that even part of the Kremlin gang part of the Russian political elite Was ready in case the tide was rising was ready to betray him So the problem of his new legitimacy the problem of support for his new for his new regime For his new presidency. It was crucial problem and his nightmare and Thus in this situation when the president could not could not get support of more than 65% Of course he was thinking about new legitimacy ad a new consolidation idea and Yanukovych collapse and Maidan gave such a pretext a pretext to form the new basis the new legitimacy on the basis of Military patriotism New legitimacy by kicking the country into the war paradigm and By the way the idea of the besieged fortress for Russia the idea of war with the United States were not that Was not that crucial at the time in 2014 at least through the end of that year the most important for the Kremlin was you know unification of Russians returned back about premier and returned back of Ukrainians threatened by Bandera of C and The second factor. What was the second factor that? influenced the Kremlin decisions in this month of 2004 the spring of 2004 the second factor is lying on the table and This factor is very important. It’s very important when we are thinking about the roots motives of the Russian foreign policy Especially during this faithful. Yes that changed the whole I would say European security order the second factor was the Kremlin’s conviction that the West Americans and the key European actors especially Germany nobody cared about France UK and the rest of Europeans Germany was grosser So the Western actors will stomach Crimea annexation and whilst am The Kremlin’s desired to create the new legitimacy and this conviction cockiness self-assuredness Hadn’t already formalized and defined between 2012 and 2013 in the updated foreign policy concept and the key premise of this concept was not Humiliation from the West that the Russian rhetoric is constantly and are concentrating self no But the idea that the worst is over the bastard point blank the mission of the West is over It is surviving through the final stage of its decay very very spangled area That’s why you know although our agenda is to fill the gap. It’s our time guys before Chinese of course interfere And we’re already from different leagues From the Kremlin at that period that Yes, it was Putin’s initiative It was his decision and a lot of people on board of the National Security Council and people around him we’re raising Concerns and even doubt serious doubts saying apparently let him read image What are you going to do, but you know the West will react there will be sanctions. This is up to you to solve? the problem so Even they elite even people close to Putin apparently from what we see now We’re not quite sure that it was the well you know their real stuff to do It should not have been done but Cockiness and assuredness provoked by the Western policy before 2014 and of course first of all the Kremlin’s attitude and reaction to the president Obama presidency and to the President Obama policy of leading from behind Strategic paws etc convinced the Kremlin that we could go ahead so two factors became an impetus for the Russian breakthrough and for the first that Putin decided to risk and kick over the global chessboard of course history has no subjective mood and Hardly, we could say what would have happened if for instance the external factor was missing What could have happened if not put in lost? popularity an approval rating in 2011-2012 but it happened what happened happened But we have to take into account The two factors that were crucial when the Kremlin wasn’t that taking this fateful for Russia for Ukraine for Europe decision next point Crimea annexation Don’t pass wolf What are the repercussions as we see as we see them now at least as? I see it now from my Moscow from my Moscow window Let me very briefly To recall or to remind you that Russian policy in Ukraine starting with the beginning of 2014 Has been evolving from one stage to another so the first stage and Here the period is quite short the period that I can call at least tentatively novorossiya new russia March September 2014 What was the goal of the Kremlin during this period very short period it was very ambitious agenda at this time on the basis of Crimea victory successful Crimea annexation euphoria the Russian the Russian authorities thought that historical russian-speaking lands Are points of weakness and? the Russian operational planning included Harkov nip repeat Rosemarie opens a Parisian Edessa very soon it proved that these assumptions were quite wrong and the Kremlin changed its strategy and tactics by September 2014 Rejecting the idea and the concept of north novorossiya and the russian world and starting with september 2014 through 2015 the end of 2015 another stage comes 2030 we can call it federalization They attempt on the Kremlin the attempt of the Kremlin was to force the west and first of all the signatories of the Minsk Act agreements and Behind them the United States of America to agree to the Russian interpretation of the Minsk effort and hurt Moscow to push incorporate the separatist Republic’s into the Ukrainian body Into the Ukrainian body and force Ukrainians to accept the Russian understanding of federalization and There are some well some periods when the Western partners and the Western signatories in Berlin and Paris were nearly ready to accept the Russian interpretation of the Eckert and Here we are coming to their third favored phase phase number 3 that continues today It started in 2015 the end of 2015 Putin has started to look for compromise for exit solution Moscow understood that the previous premises quite a few of them were a mistake Moscow hair to get out of that Moscow has to get out of the Ukrainian trap point-blank how to get out of that, but without losing face without you know without humilating itself so starting with 2015 you know we have already two years of Different gimmicks tricks because the kremlin flavor well playbook includes well rather some pretty pretty inventive ways and and instruments, but during this two years the Kremlin has been hard and desperately trying to put Ukraine behind to force the West to forget about Ukraine and Syria gambit another gambit in 2015 why Syria why in 2015 There are different reasons of the Syrian adventure and Syrian interference, but the key Goal of the war of the Russian turbulence in Syria was to return back to return back to the dialogue with the key foreign policy actors to get out of isolation Marginalization to return the role of the great power and to put Ukraine behind partially Putin has succeeded Maybe not with Ukraine not with this goal, but with some other goals, but in any case Syria allowed Putin and the Kremlin to return back To return back to the table especially with Americans and the current situation of the last Rubik demonstrates that The Kremlin has been pretty successful with Syria plan Pretty successful unfortunate in forming the new mission for President Putin the mission of the peacemaker And contradict and contradictory repercussions of of Ukraine on the one hand Definitely the Kremlin succeeded the Kremlin succeeded in raising Putin’s approval rating It became skyrocketing Crimea annexation Now scram criminal is Crimea annexation became the key idea of consolidation of the Russian society putting all other things domestic Wars and problems on the backburner and It gave some kind of impetus to them to put in the presidency cockiness a selfish ordinates You know new adrenaline into his blood But at the same time at the same time most important is another thing Sembra in 2016 this Crimea annexation adrenaline started to fade people got tired of that and other consequences became quite apparent The international space forever for Russia has limited sanctions have started to bite Just one one number in 2014 at least now Yes, the middle of 2014 Russia had approximately Sixty eight point nine billion of FDI FDI foreign direct investments By meter of 2015 Russia had only six billion Dollars of FDI so you see the difference Sanctions became very painful despite of the fact the Kremlin still does not Recognize till then does not admit it and Even more important was the fact that both starting with 2015-2016 both the elite in the society started to demonstrate fatigue fatigue would occur over their Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine would a war and The people have started to raise unpleasant questions So it became evident that Ukraine from the factor that had to strengthen the system of the regime has started to be a factor that Already was destructive has started to undermine the system and the regime Next point: what the Russian elite and people are thinking about Ukraine about Crimea annexation and the war in Donbass We can rely upon our own feelings and we can rely upon upon the results of the polls well the results of the polls, even you know, Levada polls Cannot explain the whole you know the whole cognitive dissonance of the people’s mentality But still this is the only instrument that helps us to understand at least the trance that trajectory Crimea annexation still is considered, so this is the latest polls, still considered is considered to be a sacred code But well you know Criticism of annexation well very often involves punishment 63% of Russians say that Crimean accession brought more good more positive things But already 21 percent say that Crimea annexation brought negative results But here is one more Poll that for me is fascinating really fascinating two weeks ago only 2% of Russian respondents Mentioned Crimea annexation as Putin’s achievement. 2% consider it Putin’s achievement 2% So in fact what we see people have started already To rethink to what extent they need this annexation and pay for annexation What is even more important there are different other polls-indirect-that say that Russians are not ready to sacrifice, to pay price for the Russian foreign policy for the great power role and for war in Ukraine with respect to donbass The number of people that are in fact in fact support fast exit from the war in Donbass and Ukraine is growing At the moment 41 percent of Russian respondents say that Russia should support the separates separatist republics six percent already six percent support the Kiev government and 37 percent of Russians say that Russia should not support any political force in Donbas and only 11 percent of Russians believe or insist both that Russia and Ukraine have to be one state. so in mentality of Russians in mentality of Russians, Ukrainians are Already moving towards you know independent states. Let them be we don’t want them. You know to be a hostile country It’s already emergent of a new type of identity slowly gradually at the beginning, but still and the last: my Ukrainian point What about Kremlin search for exit? So we see that Russia is preparing for new presidential elections we see that the Kremlin has been looking actively and energetically for the new idea of of the Presidency what idea you know what could be the idea of Putin’s Putin’s Putin’s election campaign he still did this show an official statement, but he is running of course He is running everybody is quite sure that he’s running so what’s the idea of the new presidency? Is it you know still the war people do not want war people do not want even to watch the TV programs Describing you know how Ukrainians you know how awful Ukrainians are etc People are not interested in that people have started to look into their refrigerators So at the moment the idea is Putin has to be the president of the peace-loving country So this is the idea now just the end of November and President Putin has to run as the peacemaker so here, you know he suggested that Syria peace plan and While he was talking to president Truong during one hour I wonder what else they discussed, but they definitely discussed Syria and Ukraine and Apparently you know Putin was trying to force the typically Russian way of negotiating because according to the Russian political tradition, you know Kremlin always makes a deal You know connecting, linking the issues, linkage. That’s the most important element of the trade dealing on the part of the Kremlin Whereas Americans tried to divide one bargain on that and other bargain on that At some point Obama said no Compartmentalization when we are dealing with Russians you know that should be the linkage So apparently there is some idea that if we now Reach some kind of consensus with Americans regarding Syria and Russia has very strong position on Syria and especially having to this smiling guys behind rouhani and aragon with their knives in their pockets, but still so still putin has the major the major hand Maybe we can somehow involve ukraine as a part of the Of the bargaining process and maybe americans will help us firstly to get out of this mess but on our terms first of all when we are talking about peacekeeping forces along the border of division between Ukraine and the separatist Republic’s, but not along the border between Ukraine and Russia if this is done then Russia could still influence the election the election yes of new authorities in Ukraine that could Be a member of the new Ukrainian Duma well forcing the enforcing the role of the Oppositional block so this is apparently is one of the ideas is one of the goals the I’m talking about November 2017 and in fact in fact we see clear desire on the part of the Russian team to escape escalation We see that. It’s very difficult for Moscow to keep hands in the pockets. Yes. It’s difficult not to you know Give the macho muscles etc but you know the idea is to present president as the peace keeper and Not to aggravate the moods within within there within the Trump administration and within European capitals Well, and the logic is Russia needs some kind of compromise decision It’s logical for the survival of the system and Putin has to return back to new normal See what kind of normal is it to the old model old model? I mean model that worked so so brilliantly before 2014 to be with the West to be inside of the West and to be against the West okay So Russia wants to return to the model that allows Russia to use the Western resources for its economy so this is the goal and Well peace keep peace so bargain and grant grant a great a grand grand bargain With the West about Ukraine is is simply you know logical thing But at the same time you can ask a question Especially looking at the situation in Donbass, what’s happening now in Donbass you can ask a question But what about the traditional instrument of Russian politics? that We could call Coercive dating when the Kremlin throws stones into the window escalating the risks forcing the opponent or the partner to accept the Kremlin stream this has been such a wonderful such a successful instrument of doing politics for four decades for the Kremlin well can the Kremlin switch to another modality or not hardly and Besides, you know, there is a question of probable miscalculations and Here are just well. It’s very interesting for those four curious about what’s going on between Kurt Volker and And surco, this is the recent have you read it? This is the recent interview of Kurt Volker – well recent- This is the only interview that he gave that he gave to Politico my favorite political well to Susan Glasser It’s very interesting because we really don’t know what’s happening between kurt volker and surco when they’re negotiating some kind of exit solution From donbass they had three meetings. We don’t know any information We don’t have this information But you know theoretically looking at Putin one could say putin wants peace And we are ready for some kind of compromise because finally the Kremlin accepted the idea of of peacekeeping forces When we we always rejected this idea Russian side and well one can have a kind of Hope that maybe something positive is moving so what Kurt Volker is say Kurt Volker says a Couple of days ago. Yes. He says We had a hope the Americans had a hope that something positive is more than we had a hope that Russians really want to get out and They forgot about escalating and He said the third meeting was circled. Just recently in Serbia in Serbia yes proved That right yes This meeting proved that no way No way Russians are not ready to backtrack Russians are not ready to discuss any compromise options, Russians are ready only to go ahead to intimidate and To achieve their goals Probably by other means and he says there is 80% of Probability that there could be a military solution you know looking Here looking at this from Moscow. Well. I’m here for two months but looking for from Moscow. I would say Nobody in Moscow now would agree with kurt volker Everybody would say that there is a probably fifteen maybe twenty percent probability of military solution because this is the moods of the elites nobody wants it, this is the moods of the society before the elections who wants war before the election So Kurt Walker says no eighty percent that there will be new military solution, so this is after Kurt Walker His view contradicts what we see what you feel is a logic But let’s leave this question open because really well. We don’t know what’s happening on the ground We know only one thing before March 2018 the Kremlin wants some kind of solution there and whether the Kremlin will use this Instrument from the playbook or that we still don’t know but again my conviction is The Kremlin people do understand the gravity of the sanctions the Kremlin people do understand how how How negative impact is of the sanction regime on the Russian economy they do understand that they cannot allow new sanction package but Apparently and this is my speculation but apparently While looking at the scenarios and options that are on the table Related to Ukraine, Putin is thinking about the following Come on. This could be the best or maybe the last Historical pause that I have Trump well We shouldn’t care about Trump Europe is in paralysis EU Brussels does not exist as the entity with some kind of coherent foreign policy the most important Is not even brexit the most important is Germany Angela has problems we can use it because Merkel is not ready to support a new reproduction of the sanction package, maybe this is the assumption of Possible much more militaristic and assertive policy regarding Ukraine, this is the possibility and and the end if the last Do I have seven minutes? Yeah, sure Thank you I Don’t want I don’t want to insist, but still we have to end it Well I Feel that I need somehow even for myself To wrap up this Ukrainian part of my talk, so what do we have now? We have the law of unintended consequences on the Russian side What I mean here, I mean that Russia has achieved unthinkable Russia has provoked European cohesion and Western unity Which hardly anyone in the Kremlin had been thinking about before Secondly at the same time Russia’s reliance upon American policy and belief hope that America will continue, Obama’s course towards Ukraine appears to be wrong Trump, despite all of his zigzagging and kind of Well, I’m not going to define Trump’s foreign policy, but you know It’s pretty difficult all hopes that Trumpian administration will be even much softer or at least will be Obama-like proved to be wrong the current US administration on Ukrainian issue appears to be much more tough much more assertive than One could have ever predicted, than Obama could have ever risk to do And for instance the fact that the American Congress But I understand that well the role of the American Congress the fact that American Congress limited possibilities of trumps maneuver in Russian direction while it also matters But the fact that the US Congress approves five hundred million dollars for military assistance to Ukraine This is the fact the fact that both mattes and even Tillerson Can you imagine Tillerson who has been dreaming and sleeping all the time? Tillerson as we know for sure he supports the military package of 48 49 49 million dollars of lethal Assistance to Ukraine. This is the fact and You know nearly all Russia hands around Russian European hands around Trump support this idea of military Assistance to Ukraine just now it’s another thing. What kind of Influence it will produce on the negotiations between Moscow and the West about Dumba’s it’s another issue But the fact that with the exception of Trump everybody around is ready to bring to Ukraine javelins Yes, well we know also Trump’s position there are so many leaks and speculations and Trump’s administration appears to be the most open Among all administration because we know nearly everything that is happening maybe in their lose. We know also that Trump said why not Well if we read all these analysis people that are close and there are not only leaks but serious people are saying about that That why not? only let Ukraine pay for that. Well, which is probably unpleasant thing for Ukrainians Well to pay for this 48 million packets of weapons But if you take to account that you know Ukraine all the same has to pay 38 billion dollars You know for loans, and it has only five billion dollars in the National Bank well It could be somehow prolongated into the future the payment But the most thing is Trump’s administration is much more assertive on the issue of Ukraine This is secondly thirdly The second point is positive for Ukraine, but third point is pretty negative for Ukraine And I’m talking about European unity European unity on sanctions Europe still reproduces sanctions But who knows what the new government and when the new government in Germany Will be composed and what the new government and especially if this government is with Social Democrats what this government What kind of position it takes it will take on sanctions? we don’t know but America’s position has been weakened and She hardly Maybe yes, maybe no whether she could keep sanction unity of Europe in the next half of the year We don’t know, but we know one important thing that Europeans forced Americans to cut demands to Russia when Americans accepted the August sanction Act and Gazprom and Nordstream and some other companies are excluded from the US and Western sanctions we know that for sure. why? Because American said we don’t want to quarrel with Europe, and yes, it’s low denominator for unity But apparently we are not going to increase you know increase problems for Russia in this area especially But this problems could be created for our European partners So what will be European unity regarding Ukraine is a big question rock to men and knows? But at the same time there is fourth Point the Russian society and elites are tried of the of the war with Ukraine they don’t want to continue they want the end they want to put the end to this to this war and The final the final thing is the current Russian leadership that has legitimized itself the political regime and its policy by turning to military patriotism and turning to a Crimea annexation element has serious problems to get out of this to get out of this trap and probably only new political leadership will have much more much more feel for … and the final part very briefly because well, I’m already testing your patience but I will do that On the logic of Russian system several brush points firstly Does the Kremlin really want confrontation with the West at the moment the answer is no the problem for the Kremlin for the current political regime and first forward for Putin privately somehow to return to the previous policy of accommodation of adaptation of personal integration of the Russian elite political elite and commercial elite into the west and The rationally it definitely doesn’t want Russia to turn into North Korea What about the Russian society Russian society appear well Here’s cognitive dissonance on the one hand the Russian society supports foreign policy of President Putin on the other hand This is a very important on the other hand only 18 percent of Russians would like containment of America and 14 percent of Russians would like any actions like expansion areas of interests of influence etc etc and 46 47 up to 50 percent of Russians, maybe even more now I would say consider Great power status for Russia that they support not you know as a status based on military might But the status of country that is Pursuing you know economic interests of the country so different notion of the great power started to emerge Secondly what is the Kremlin foreign policy agenda now? Well, I would say that if we define it theoretically It’s you know the attempt to force the West to accept some kind of a hybrid between new versal system based on sovereignty territorial integrity non-interference and at the same time post modernity which would allow Russia and the Kremlin to interpret the key rules of the game in its own way. very Putinesque. Thirdly what’s happening on the domestic scene the campaign? Putin definitely will win well the agenda is to get 70% of turnout and 70% of Votes in favor of Putin it can be done with different you know Different manipulations the problem is nobody in the Kremlin nobody knows what to do next nobody knows how to deal with the pile and economic social and all other problems that Russia is facing and What are the prospects for the Russian system this is last point well, I will liberate you We have to acknowledge and to admit that there are powerful fact drivers that help the System the current system and the regime to reproduce itself, and I would mention the most important of them lack of political alternative and lack of political forces That could produce such a political alternative And secondly the anti reformist anti reformist force the systemic liberals that are working for the government for the kremlin and discredit liberalism and Also the fact that the elite Very pathetic is afraid of any change and of course demoralized society only 7% of russians Are ready to take part in the actions of protest well its minority not many people still could be important in big cities, but overall Society is very demoralized, but here are the drivers that became apparent that undermined the system Firstly the russian society proved that it’s not totalitarian anymore 48% are ready to fight again the state if the state Subjugates the interests of individual 56% say that the country needs opposition more than 20 now 22 million of people are living outside of the state no connection to the state free people No paternalism well at least among them So well a lot of people apparently are ready to accept the new rules of the game if they’re Offered to them and here is our our Russian difference with Ukrainians Ukrainians are ready to take to Maidan to the street in order to demand and form these rules of the game whereas Russians are still Waiting when the political alternative is formed from the top another factor that is undermining the system the state has shrinking resources and You know hardly enough in 2018 2019 for handouts and bribery bribery of the population and growing people’s discontent Especially in the regions, and now we have the younger generation coming to the streets not in majority but even 10% of the younger generation between 18 years and 24 years of age who are Unsatisfied with the current regime. It’s a powerful powerful powerful Instrument and powerful resource, and now we have for the first time during the last 25 years Strong rather strong pressure on the part of the West and we have to think what will happen on February specially February 2nd when the US Treasury Department Publishes its list of 70 people so far 70 people on the list could be much more that Will be probably the people Close to the Kremlin power members of their families Who will be published who will constitute the list of Corrupted Russian elites, and how Russia will respond to that So now we see and really well And we feel it feel it in Moscow and in other cities we feel that The country is different Not many Formal signs that say that this country is totally different But there are so many bumps beneath the surface the country’s becoming grumpy Angry, and the anger is rising dissatisfaction frustration the question that remains open for many of us well for me itself for me at least Will the rising tide and nobody doubts that the rising tide of anger Protests dissatisfaction frustration is coming the next 1 2 3 5 years. It’s inevitable So many interests are looking for articulation and no channels for that so well The society will be boiling at some point the problem is whether this a tide of wrath and and anger produce structural political alternative to the regime or it will produce a new Savior and We will end not with the end of the system But only change of the regime that will help to prolongate the system, so this is the question that remains open and of course Any change that we are looking for could be different but Now people at least well from my trips to the regions I can make a conclusion that people do understand That their destiny Well, it’s not a problem of chance it’s the problem of their choice, so While it seems to me some moment of truth is coming for Russia and definitely this moment of truth will have an impact not only on Russia on Ukraine on European security and Apparently on the global security as well Thank you. I’m sorry that I did or did it Well for such a long time, but I had to deliver all my points First of all I agree with you that the question with russian-ukrainian relations better understood in the context of the redefinition of national identity than the imperial imperial redefinition and imperial struggles per se and One of those things is of course that Crimea Where ethnic russians are the majority is attached to the Russian Federation when they bomb donboss where they’re not is not attached and again, that’s that’s important factor that the dead points in certain directions in the way, how Russia imagines itself and emergencies borders But one thing that came with Crimea which came with the war hybrid war in donbass was the rise of Russian nationalism and instead of instrumentalization of that nationalism outside of the Borders of the Russian Federation now it comes back with gherkin with mrs potlonskaya and My question is about about the Russian nationalism In today’s Russia whether when the moment of truth comes? Do you think that can be one of the contenders for the for the Force that will present an alternative well It’s not ready to what degree Russian nationalism still this can be manipulated or to what degree? It’s already an independent force Serhii, it’s very important question and Igor was here as well he also participated in discussion of this question my my feeling Because on many issues one still has a feeling but not just conviction my feeling is firstly Putin does understand, you know what’s the possible role of nationalism for the destiny of Russian multi-ethnic States, and he’s very much afraid of Nationalism There are efforts Not successful I would say not successful to Use nationalism to support the regime before Crimean well because in fact majority of Russian organized nationalist groups ethnic nationalism including they were under Putin and antiquary Well there are thousands of people taken to the street in the fall in before before 2014 a Russian national with predatory slogans well not only against migrants etc against Putin Russian nationalism including Russian ethnic nationalism until 2014 was anti-systemic anti-regime and anti-putin among these people was rather limited group I knew these people they were they’re fragmented just now we call this natsdem national Democrats and Ironically not national Democrats. Well. I don’t accept any knowledge about national Democrats were the first in the Russian discourse the first and This is slap in the face of us. You know to us liberals They were starting to say you know the problem is not only those personalities on the table the problem is the US Constitution We need to change the Constitution because it puts the president about the frame and not It is uncontrollable So while they were raising essential questions And there was you know raising the questions to what extent know conferences and especially Chechnya being you know a different civilization identity could be you know part of the Russian Federation being and you know and I would say being Into the mystic civilization anything so these were national Democrats Crimea and annexation of Crimea in fact was a burial site for Russian nationalism it tormented them because partially partially well the accepted Crimea firstly they were just Squashed because the leaders of Russian nationalism at least well five or seven the key Leading-edge law is in prison right now Wrap the leaders of Russian nationalism are in prison. You know the leaders of Russian liberals. I’m not thank God you know they crack down on nationalism only says that the Kremlin really is very much afraid of them and understands limits of manipulation guillotine or clone square well Yes, they’re puppets on this dream, but they represent minority without popular support Well of course there is another type of nationalist imperialistic nationalist and the Kremlin tries to massage it and Support it. But if you look and I participated what that’s better I just you know when to see not participate it when to see how many people take to the street you know On popular on schedule this interval mystic nationalism they came and they’re being page They came for as million kids we say you know on the list you know and hardly there are more than 2000 3000 people so the Kremlin has problems to collect this imperialistic Nationals so in fact Nationalism so far is not the resource of power number one Secondly Nationals has no strategic agenda now after being dragged down okay, and thirdly Russian nationalism of democratic graduation apparent Who’d raised some very important questions? For instance the future of the Russians be where the Russia has to be still an empire a Russian Federation or nation-state liberals are not introducing these questions For this and I wouldn’t Personally partially Belarus Elodie was Belonging to that, but the rest were young people between 25 35 years Some of them were working for high school They were the first who raised the questions about the nature of Betrayed or inverted oh I have a at the very beginning or almost the very beginning you made a remark that Russia is unable to pursue real militarization, and I wanted you to expand on that because that subsequently you talked a lot about patriotic Militarization and also the same right now. We see a lot of expansion of capabilities of the Russian military, so I was wondering what what you had in mind Thank you for your question and of course well. I could ask you To make comments because well You’re really very respected specialists on military issues my response to you is the following I? strongly believe And there is one person who is really an expert on Russian militarization cycles not from the point of view Weaponry but from the point of view style of rule psychology mentality eager clunking who first invented the concept of Russia’s Militarization as the key element of the Russian state well, and I strongly believe that he is right it seems to me in history and I’m Looking at inna my friend to Martin what fear she knows Russian history much better than I Ever do but it seems to me that Russian history at least starting with the 16th century In fact has been evolving from one military cycle to another and some interval between the wars was that were even if either victorious or defeats But in any case after war after some poles and other cycle of militarization came and when I’m talking about militarization It’s you know. I’m not talking about weaponry and the militarization of the budget. I’m talking about rule of governance when it happened only twice it seems to me the world history with inks and Sparta when the ruling elite turns the state and society into the garrison that survives and operates on the basis of order of the military imperative and So brilliantly Stallion repeated this formula and made the Soviet Union the Example of the military state when we are talking about the style of life and for instance when this week the Krasnoyarsk legislative and Krasnoyarsk mayor office Gives the assignment to all schools of Krasnoyarsk to introduce Vienna pakatok at the military training in order to insert military again psychology into the minds of the first grade Students it’s the return to this militaristic not from the point of your military budget now But from the point of view returning to the state as garrison. It’s also kind of totalitarianism well It’s a it’s a very interesting well this totalitarianism does not mean apparent Total control over everything probably you know we’ll be moving in this direction But Adam at the time. You know it’s returned to the Symbols and signs of the military psychology, you know the whole world is against us we have to defend ourselves Okay, we have to we have you know to teach our younger generation how to fight etc etc So this is return to the Soviet symbols well in the situation when we don’t have any other But in fact what we have you may it’s very interesting question maybe for you you can supply it with numbers on The one hand the Russian elite that has been incorporated personally into the West They in fact are uneasy With Russia as a military power because it is toxic power it does it hinders their projects and their life in the West their life in London Brown when they have behind them toxic assertive military power with You know with nukes in Kaliningrad it hurts They don’t want it But they don’t have another model so on the one hand you know we reach the end of the militarization Cycle on the other hand we cannot get out of that. It’s probably the worse situation We cannot move ahead and we cannot stop so this is a kind of I will I will use zygmunt bauman It’s a kind of Sigmund Brown stole this idea from grams. Of course. It wasn’t his idea. We’re in a kind of Interim time out of time when when we exhausted the previous paradigm that the elite is not ready to invent a new one and when everything can happen everything I’m sorry I cut so questions procurve and this moment rubber band are the presidential any proper one Let’s go with improper In prepare Valley is you refers to a military solution I but I I wonder what exactly mentoring Yeah, I Just I used the words of Kurt Wonka when he said that Reach control cross interview when he says that according to his well according to His you know thinking process there was 80% The crushable use the same military means and military solution in dumpers What could meant? Well, we have to ask her, but if we take into account the previous military solutions well, you know they don’t bus situation from inside and Apparently you can be much more eloquent discussing the military solutions hardly You know we are talking about direct involvement of the russian troops crossing the borders from the Rostov region like the Russian troops did in 2014 and in 2015 just during the Minsk Accord negotiations hardly, but If this is true because well, we rely on very I would say a random information for instance What’s happened in Lugansk? plotnitsky ran away People just like you know these green soldiers polite guys took over Control over Lugansk and only now a couple of days ago in fact yesterday We are coming to conclusion on the basis of proverb probably quote probably or line a reliable information that it was veggie kebab now okay because we have Different units Russian units that are not strictly Regarded as part of the Russian army or military structures let him explain it to you Fighting in Syria and many casualties, and we have funds not in the budget but for instance there is such money company because Nietzsche gas premium cigars burst or something else with huge fans a secret classified funds apparently they could be used in order to To accommodate this these troops that we called veduca Buckner in any case well this kind of new type of Yamaha you can call them. They are not troops inside part of military So this is the way at least of how something could be done Lugansk plotnitsky and apparently vechicle are gonna well, but I don’t believe I don’t believe that the Kremlin will be will get out of their lines and there will be repetition of 2015 I don’t believe it because this will mean directly European unity Germany taking over social different Emperor’s in Germany well forget about there But again Yeah, you didn’t see actually any other kind of producer the name Music has a second name We go back to some details We Actually mentioned, okay do they decay? That’s okay, but you mentioned the unique and towards the middle so first thing you said that The current system is in bikini and it has been Since then my question then of course is Don’t you believe that G to some extent a place into the hands of nearest analysts? And then Wouldn’t you then? When she also say that for somebody who accepts the Putin’s regime reliefs in Russia not AXA, but not this yes, but simply accept Criticizing it this person is in a position of almost you know Almost actually wanting to go back to the time. You know when the system was still But still it’s it’s I can speak If the system is in decay The question is to what extent in European and the present represents Representatives of X are aware if the era where how does it square with the second point that? You made mainly that’s according to inclusions imagination or the imagination of the the power of policymakers It’s the West that is in decline Let’s to say how do they square those two notions of? Being in decline and also Dealing with that with the system that are actually trying to replace that is also palpably in decline you have several questions in one I will try to give some logic to Men’s because not your best firstly It’s very difficult for me to understand What the people that are close to the decision-making? Are thinking about the current stage of? the System or systemic survival to what extent they do understand that the situation is not positive But there are some indirect signs That allow us to make conclusion that these people could have their mythology They these people could have that inadequacy Well that is reflected very often in some of their actions for instance in action the desire to do novorossiya in Ukraine definitely federal decision based on Mistake yes but at the same time they do understand the situation is not that benevolent in Russia in economy in social development etc and that their positions are quite threatened for instance the creation of Ross Guardia National National Guard That is the most powerful internally domestic power source of the Kremlin says that It has a motive behind that apparently the Kremlin Really thinks that there are serious domestic threats Well because well otherwise well. You could be satisfied with the internal domestic troops and MVD. This is firstly Secondly the fact that all major before the elections all major institutions now They are given the chimney we call it change. They are given agenda to make situation better and The statistical Bureau that is working for the government is now subordinated to the government There’s no information independent information about the state of the Russian economy it says that you know definitely they have something to hide there are different sides that they have something to hide the fact that Putin is now making a kind of Maoist cadre revolution getting rid of many governors and Sending new people and new faces into the regions Who have no connection and a linkage to this region? Also says that it’s a kind of preventive step that he would like to have much more loyal leadership in the in the regions before something unpleasant happens besides they have real social cause we have social calls that they use every week on day every week basis and Apparently this every week cause give them give them some understanding. What’s happening in the widgets, so they in fact To wrap this up in fact They apparently have some more or less adequate situation that this system has no economic resources Secondly that social problems are violent. I don’t I don’t think that they use in the world decay degradation dimerization this is my world secondly their conviction, or do they really believe that the West is in decay I Would say I would trust I would trust Lavrov and I would trust Putin and I would trust key foreign policy speakers in Russian during the last two years before at least Summer this year when they really thought after heaven rather intensive experience of dealing with Western leaders Starting with Chirac and in with shredder and then Blair Berlusconi And Obama that the Western leaders can be manipulated That the Western leaders can be Especially the case of deceived can be yes manipulated deceived ignored and They could be blackmailed Because during the last I would say five Or six years the pulse of blackmail has been pretty successful And it seems to me they made some mistakes Because while they never expected. I am talking about the people in the Kremlin they never expected the sanction In Europe they never expected European coherence, and they never expected that they will have such unpleasant moments and unpleasant gestures on the part of trans administration, so they make a mistake I’m curious whether there’s any what you think about the situation with? Turkey and the creation of what I served myself think of as an axis of a liberal regimes with Iran and so on and whether there’s any indication That in these would be Turkey. They started putting Ukraine to some extent behind them I mean, I would I would I almost think there’s a way that they should say this is a hopeless situation we’re going to try and create this new set of relationships and Very fast you know you need a real expert on these issues, but very fast with what I am watching Firstly we shouldn’t exaggerate just like We can’t believe any kind of Russia’s people to China we shouldn’t exaggerate any basis any platform for any kind of Mirage a possibility of bedfellows with rouhani and Abdullah Well everybody during the Sochi meeting Pursued his own goals and one when one looks at their collective photo session with Putin behind drew honey, and M the gun and the gun just looking just Distant from Putin he does one even to look at Putin’s rouhani is looking at Putin with some kind of deal This tastes well This reflected very much problems between the three sides several problems. I will just mentioned Iranians are pretty unhappy with Russians because in fact Putin wants to be the king peacemaker where arrest Hezbollah and Iranian swear they will boots on the ground and where they meet and they lost a lot of people in black and They will need according to Iranian estimates much more input and much more liberty over the final Peace I would say this format in Syria so there are serious problems between Russians and Iranians This is firstly problems between Russians and Turks. Well. There’s so many of them everybody plays his own game and Especially after Russians last year gave. I could be when I deal with more than four zeros I don’t remember But at least pretty nice sum of money Russia gave to Kurds Kurds are pretty often visitors in the Kremlin and do you think that having? Kurds in pockets and be friendly to Kurds Putin can have trust of everyone Come on, so everybody apparently has his own goals over there, and everyone is helping Crimean Turks Well, there’s so many in this box, but you know these this is temporary alliance that apparently well Has one purpose Everybody has agreed in in Sochi at least tentatively for its own control of The fragmented Syrian territory surah has been divided and in a sense. It’s a new yatra okay, the problem is now to get approval of the United States of America and Americans as we know they have not only 5,000 people Soldiers very good elite soldiers why they cooperate with Kurds they have around 15,000 They will bring more their pain Kurds and this basket. You know is full of snakes People on the Ukrainian Research Institute Comment than a question. I mean just like hurted historical concentration of the different and looking back at People rulers like Ivan the third Peter the great Lenin installed Who engaged in this? social class disciplinary measures creation of the service strata Bolster state strength my impression is that Putin by and large as not has been unable to do that And I’m not saying that because of that that has been an encouragement or an inducement for him for his foreign adventures but I do I have regarded for quite some time has had that being a major failure because My question is do you feel that one factor for why Russia isn’t involved in Syria Is – this may be distract Western attention from Ukraine? Actually, I agree This was the first goal and then when Putin took the decision some other motives You know have been included like let’s test you know our Military weapons, let’s test. You know our pilots etc. Let’s return to the Middle East well. Well why not? Let’s you know tease Iranians and etc well so many other Second-rate girls well, but the first goal is let’s forget about your cranium. Yes Well, I simply wonder to what extent we should compare Putin to Ivan the Terrible No, no I’m just thinking It’s not clear to me that Forced of all there are separate sanctions And then several rounds of sanctions in regard to the conflict in eastern Ukraine that Was on the part of both the United States and the EU but at least with the financial sanctions the one that really But then more importantly Is that the Obama administration enacted the sanctions through executive orders? Whereas, you know as you know that Congress earlier this year out of mistrust of? Trump administration put it in the Legislation and that makes it much harder to lift because it has to be done through congressional action and you know if you bear in mind for example with the Jackson-vanik amendment, which took 41 years to live Long long after it had lost its purpose So now that to do again because of congressional opposition for irrelevant things so the It’s not clear to me that that’s going to be much of an incentive to do anything about Ukraine because I’m sure that a lot of figures in the Kremlin look on Early or experience with sanctions and realize that Especially because the sanctions in connection with Crimea are not going to be lift it unless You know that Congress somehow decides that it’s going to accept Thank you so much for comment could I make a very brief comment? I Agree with your lordship, but I would like to add like you know in this in Christina stick paper share a couple of brush strokes Firstly I Wonder to what extent The Kremlin folks in Putin are so naive They believe that they could get rid for instance of Crimea sanctions, but Crimea sanctions I’ve analyzed them together with a group of people you know they could be reproduced without much harm Okay, well they in fact very limited Secondly to an extent Putin hopes that they will get rid of sectoral sanctions really important European sectoral sanctions Well, I don’t think that Putin’s advisers are telling him. You know what in the next six months? EU will not reproduce will will not will not update them. I’m not sure that they believe that Thirdly I do believe that They hope that the so-called Simmons formula could be implied and Reproduced and here what they have in mind. There are so many loopholes in the mechanism of implementation of both European sanctions and sanctions that apparently will be reproduced by Americans including the executive order sanctions that have been codified by the Congress when I am talking about Simmons loopholes it means that for instance any Western company that cannot deal for instance over at Gazprom In Siberia cannot give for technology to Rostov cannot give the the oil drilling equipment To Ross yet, okay? these companies have Possibility to create daughter companies what some minor Russian participation and do what Simmons did? delivering pipes to Crimea Okay, so there’s so many loopholes in this kind of read meant it and the westerns if they’re serious they Have took to delete these loopholes, but Europeans intentionally together with Americans left this loopholes because firstly they don’t want to aggravate Putin’s regime God knows. What will happen certainly there is another it seems to me You can tell me whether I’m wrong all right in fact The West is not ready for serious damage and collapse of the Russian economy because otherwise what these guys will do and Regarding regarding and Regarding, but at the same time. There is one more important thing I don’t believe very strongly in the power of Sectoral sanctions and sanctions that are probably will be implemented Towards very much towards the companies of Canada for instance I do believe in personalized package in the package directed against private people 70 people that are on the list this could be apparently a very powerful instrument that will tell the Russian elite Putin is not anymore guarantee of your well-being So I very much hope that this list will be implemented But I am very grateful for your for your explanation Some discussion of some framing of the salt agreement This is an intermediate-range Missile in fact Dima will explain more in an expert way We don’t know to what extent Reference really Undermined the INF treaty, which is one of the most powerful and serious elements of the Nuclear Security Well Dima will tell us to what extent you know the speculations that s s-300s S400 are in Kaliningrad area you know but the problem is that the whole Russian? Expert security community is talking about that non-stop considering it it’s a very serious thing and the whole community is trying to persuade you know the public opinion on TV and elsewhere now This is the American side that started defense and we only have to respond but demon knows much more about INF And whatever simply I’m watching the dialogue you know among our people But I don’t want to take the time Russia is ready to sell malaria Yet in order to get agreement Stable no sanctions because of clinic good You know a lot of my colleagues from the so-called Russian mainstream well series excellent simply they don’t like Trenton enter the nice cramping they still believe that This kind of exchange and traders forget about Crimea Just forget ok and we are going to leave don’t bus do whatever you want simply Incorporate down bus into your praying and ballet. Whatever will be happy I Do believe that firstly? Putin is not ready with this purified form of the bargain because still the domineering Idea in Moscow we have to influence Ukraine from inside in this way or that way Still the idea is that? Probably because the worst is we and may be fragmented maybe there was a kind of loophole that we could make consensus make about bagging on the basis of the peacekeeping forces and Get the West to agree that will influence the combination you know they they there was also the elections in in Lugansk – don’t ask especially when they turn it into One Republic Transnistria ok and then you know we can get rid slowly Gradually from Ukraine, and it’s up to your brain and the world community to take care of this devastated area So there is no. You know this key idea as you mentioned there is no There’s there is no this idea in the Kremlin and regarding the West I am NOT social. It’s up to the experts here I’m not so sure that now after what we had What kind of experience we had this year after Russia became so toxic for American political life sadly? What do you think would extend the West will? accept this super super cynical idea if we have Berlusconi in Italy Sarkozy or Chirac in Paris brag cities out whatever even Blair Blair is in London advisor of Another buyer valley etc and if we have shredder again in Berlin then this kind of positing is possible but we have other people over them and we have Makram and Merkel is still not in the retirement out and Trap cannot do it because it will definitely means subpoena and Muller will get him Into his pocket, so I don’t believe that the West is ready for this view This may be just an opinion or what chance is there for uprising and Crimea Should explain it Simply because I’m currently riding there is something Russian symbolic powers at one point in your time You refer to the frantic efforts by the incremental arcs the cast Putin as the present a peacemaker What do you think can efforts In Livadia and we said the third being of course known as these are peacemaker nina already It’s it’s not a question. It’s a comment. You know really responded to But those who haven’t seen the photo When you’re talking about the causes the reasons for russia intervening and Crimea and great You didn’t mention one reason, that’s often mentioned, which is the fear of? color revolutions, and this you know contagion effects and so sort of thing either coming to Russia after or just as a demonstration for you know Russian opposition And do you think that’s that wasn’t really much of an issue or? Do you have some other? As I remember I said that The Kremlin had to respond to Yanukovych collapse because because of these these because well because when you raise an idea and because of fear of repetition of Maidan or haven’t but I Decided that I would mention two factors or two drivers that made all previous factors and fears viable and You know important, and I’m still as I said, I’m still Deliberating and the more we have in about this dramatic Peter Maybe the more will have food for some other conclusion and the moment in November 2017 on the basis of what I know what my friend said now on the basis of Moscow discos and now understanding of the Kremlin it seems to me. It’s already common understanding that these two factors I mean You know Putin’s legitimacy and the Western readiness to backtrack they were most important as impetus But of course there were all other fears and and and Wallace, but his two impetus. You know made the whole situation Possible it’s interesting because in among the people I talk to and especially in Washington Initially there was very much This perception that the domestic politics the legitimacy part was driving it and over time They’ve they’ve they that has been de-emphasized in favor of the sphere of the West you may It’s very important that you mention it because well. This is our kitchen constant narrative between us Why and how the Western experts well in current case? Washington experts Starts to get influenced by our Russian Mainstream talk you know very often and Especially it goes through the channels probably if channels are talking to all Russians and Russians are saying you know this is color revolution this is fear of colour revolutions etc well it becomes already the Western narratives so how to exclude possibility of being influenced by this virus, that’s very important thing I Don’t believe that in the fall of 2014 Putin was so much of rate of Repetition of my done you know so much in the future yes, that’s why I was going there, okay? Apparently it is in his head apparently it is somewhere in him in his head definitely after 2011 yes after But the impetus the driving force was It’s a Very interesting statement I believe that in the 21st century the Soviet Union will be the Democratic state But it’s interesting that the most optimistic knows that sounded Without the changes and the Russian public opinion and despite the fact that Really the situation is really very very difficult, and and the war is going on the the Russia today is probably more democratic than the Soviet Union was back in 1985 1980 and Third agree that we are looking for therefore the silver lining for the for some optimistic solution again the hope lies with The Russian public and with the Russian people so thank you very much

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *