Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 7 29 2019

Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 7 29 2019



good ale I rap Steen and I'm back it is Monday July 29 2019 just after 5 p.m. central Daylight Time sorry for being a little late but imagine the first day you're back after a week you're buried that's all I can say this is a big week and if you're trying to grab hold of what's going on you've got a lot of economic data coming out tomorrow that it will get everybody's attention for 10 seconds after that they're going to go back to thinking what is the Fed gonna do on Wednesday when the FOMC meeting ends what is the speech or not speech but the statement and then the press conference by Fed chair pal going to say the market will then take a small breather for a day and then it's going to focus immediately on the employment data right now they're looking for about a hundred and sixty six thousand new jobs created in the employment rate to fall to three point six percent then we've got the US Chinese trade talks going on as we're talking we'll see what that's gonna do they actually kick off now so as I'm talking to you at 5:00 p.m. they may have begun you know there's all these different time differences as to how it works metals getting a little bit of a bid at this point is we're seeing currencies backing off the big event of the day was the beating the British Pound has taken under the new prime minister Johnson who apparently is still bent on leaving the European Union without a deal he wants them to renegotiate and they have said no so what do you do October 31st is coming and he has pledged to leave the EU by then you know they may kick him out and they may stay in Vienna and you don't know what's gonna happen but it's certainly not good news for the pound than it has been coming down on the energy markets we're all gonna be looking to see what the API and E I eight data does this week and in the grains it's still that growing season so no matter what rain makes grain and even though we had too much rain at the beginning of the planting season now you're at a different phase as for the bonds of notes what you can imagine the markets gonna be up down backwards side words as traders that have already done their thing and now they decide how do they position themselves for the Fed where the market is anticipating widely about a quarter point cutting interest rates possibly depending on what the employment debt and what the Fed chair says and it's funny because he speaks first on Wednesday then we see the employment data and my guess is he hasn't seen that data that when he's going to be speaking to get overly strong data on jobs what does that do for another rate cut on the other hand the Fed if they cut this and they say it's an insurance cutting the numbers come out terrible in the jobs they'll look bright as can be you'll figure it out if you look at the weekly area chart of closes you can't get away from the fact that you're at all-time highs nothing wrong with that this markets still acting very strong you can see volatility what's happened here the market is starting to contract that did it today I don't know what it'll do tomorrow but I can't imagine the markets going to go crazy one way or the other at this point unless there's a piece of news that moves it right now the traders are properly waiting to see what the Fed does or doesn't do in the swing lines you've gotten lower and low on a higher high that is not a trend the market is trend less in terms of that study but the biases stayed up because this market continues to hold and stay over as a whole the 18 day moving average of closes I call that the line in the sand and it has stayed over it you would have to get back under it and take out this last break glow to tell me that maybe we've got a distribution where the markets gonna fluctuate and get some downside pressure it's not showing that sign yet the resistance showed up and it's still doing its job that is the upper Bollinger Band this black line and remember what Bollinger Bands are they're an algorithm developed by John Bollinger if you wanted to read about that and the idea there is the market will trade within this 95% of the time but it's more than that because you look to see the direction what's going on within the bands or the bands pointing up or down I like to apply moving averages within the bands John does that as well on some of his and then the question is when you first hit a band how do you interpret what that means I interpret that myself to mean that when you first hit it the pros are taking some money off the table that it's not a trend change but pros look for resistance support areas to add come out of markets why futures are not the same as a stock futures are futures they expire by nature the leverage is totally different than in the stock market high leverage and now they've even got these new products that are one-tenth the size and they're very popular so you can trade an SP a Nasdaq Dow whatever and we're gonna run some ads on this and explain how that all works but you can be trading this for 1/10 decides to build positions take off parts your positions they're fungible so it's very interesting but going into this week which is one of the biggest weeks of all this economic data up to 2019 there's just a lot coming out we get Chinese numbers this week as well seeing how their PMI is going you've got lower and low higher high into a resistance area markets got upside bias and it's headed for a long time and the market is overbought when you come to the Nasdaq the trend is up higher and lows it's sort of stalling right here you can come to this high and that number was 80 40 75 then you step back and this high was 80 51 75 so suddenly we've got a pattern of higher and lows but lower highs that makes it to me a lot of sense is the markets overbought figuring out what it wants to do and what the traders are gonna do going into and right after the FOMC meeting that remember we're gonna get the statement and at one o'clock on Wednesday then the press conference have typically at the 1:30 I will be on Fox well let me take that back I'm gonna be on Bloomberg got the wrong one down I'm sure I'll be on Fox 2 this week I hope but Bloomberg I already know at 9:50 in the morning they just booked me so I know that'll be on there and that central Daylight Time that's well before the Fed announcement but we'll be talking about the markets I'm sure what the futures are doing and hot what the traders are thinking going into the report when you come to the Dow do you disagree that the market fall back to the 18 day average finding its way momentum has been pointing down the slow stochastic study just a bit to the downside but again we're not able to stay under that 18 day average of Kouzes so you've had this bullish bias all the way through that in the russell the market did get under that eighteen and hundred day average never did quite hit the lower Bollinger been within a hair's breadth of it then it flipped back over and it's been trying to hold it but overall look at the black bands on the Bollinger Bands remember the marker will trade 95% of the time within them the other part I've said is you look to see as the market trending or not you're not trending you're going sideways here is this markets killing time waiting to see what the next move is in the VIX one of the things that I've been preaching and I've been watching it over and over now for a couple of years is that each time you're hitting these lower Bollinger Bands after you've taken this VIX down into this eight and a half to twelve area if we want to call it anything like that that the pros seem to come out of the woodwork and write puts against this trying to come out at that 18 day average of closes and I've been just watching this phenomenon I don't know how long it'll last or if it'll keep lasting it's always riskier when you're writing it higher when you're at a low level it's easier to pop for example from a 14 level to a 20 than it is from 11 down to a 7 that's what takes place that's just the nature of how this works and that's something you watch it now if you were back up into the 2025 level I wouldn't be saying that we're at a low level is the reason that I'm noticing that in the tea bonds do you disagree that the markets just hanging here at this 18 day average of closest and you're watching the lower Bollinger Band and the higher Bollinger Band and the lower one they're climbing in together starting to grab prices very typical of a market that's getting ready for another move that seems to be what it's doing and it makes all the senses are now waiting to see what the feds gonna do some people still think a quarter-point hike most people do some think a half points in their there are others of us that say hey the economic dad has not been that bad why even cutting but I had the fetish that insurance cut I guess in looking at the marketplace you're just hugging that average right now the overall trend in this market is lower highs lower and lows a bit more bearish than you have in the bonds which have a lower and low and a higher high you can see that as we come over to TLT you are hugging this 18 day average of closes now you got high enough today to take out 131 90 you hit 131 95 which means you ended this a four rate to the downside doesn't mean it can't regroup again but now you're just neutral you've gotten lower and low higher high just hanging at that average in the dollar and that you've been quite bullish this market to even what President Trump is saying today he was talking that I want to see a bigger cut than that quarter point that they're talking and he's talked about intervening and what's gonna happen to the dollar I don't know if you don't have the Fed behind the intervention where do you go I don't know that the Treasury Department has that power I think the market would pay attention but I don't know how lasting it would be so you're still very much in an uptrend is our economy super-strong or dollar strong and relative your interest rates are good in the euro currency you can see how the markets gotten lower and low and it's trying now with today it's been hugging this lower Bollinger Band it's trying to come out of that configuration if you can keep the red line and get it over 20 you might get more of a correction here I was reading today just before I came on the this recording how traders are now thinking the Swiss bank has come in and intervene in their currency in the British Pound need i say more this is how the market is viewing what mister Johnson the Prime Minister is doing it is not favorable to what's going on you've got lower highs you've had lower lows while I was out of town you hit the lower Bollinger Band that's normally where I see pros takes some money off the table you've seen that but for it accelerated through that we'll see if it can stay under it it's only 5% of the time you stay under or over an upper Bollinger Band so we'll see what happens but to start a trends you've got to push it in one direction that seems to be what's going on here in the Japanese yen you're in a downtrend which means people aren't running to other areas for fear that's the Swiss franc is one of those areas it's considered a safe haven currency as is the end you've got the lower highs lower and lows the dollars just super strong support big support seen at the 9200 level 91 99 791 97 the hundred day average Bollinger Band hundred-day then we get to Bitcoin where ever since Facebook came out and got Lieber into the news well you've peaked that whole thing out and you've given back almost a third of those gains it's pretty big as to what's going on momentum still locked in to the downside lower highs lower lows you'd have to take out ten thousand three forty five to negate this pattern that's currently in there at this point in Brent versus WTI crude I'm gonna have to leave very shortly these September's and just move on to now the difference differential I'll go to the next contracts in them but you can see you're just hanging here at the 18 day average of closes now when we come to September Brent the pattern has been one of higher and lows higher highs but you're unable to stay over that resistance that line in the sand that 18 day average of closes which when a market gets extended to a downside it's not uncommon it pulls back up to it to the upside hits the upper ball in Japan hundred day average on the correction two days in a row pulls right there then it decided to go further down so you're fighting that battle and remember you get API data tomorrow and then CIA data coming out on Wednesday morning for American crude and if we see 57 64 was the last rally high you've been to 57 17 tonight but you gotten lower and low higher high pattern momentum is trying to come up a little is the bias down a confusing chart INRI Bob gasoline where was that summer rally that was supposed to be phenomenal didn't occur and you know you'll say well we still have August folks it's wine down period I'm watching schools in Chicago getting ready very shortly for students to go back my daughter-in-law is a teacher and she'll in two weeks be back preparing all her class assignments as they get going you've got here if you take a look lower highs higher and lows there's really nothing going on the resistance is the hundred day average in green the 18 day average and you are oversold here's the market that is annihilated traders the natural gas when I use the word annihilated I want to use it very carefully but you were way up higher this market has come down it has been a summer that's not been excessive in terms of need for natural gas on top of that you have an abundance of the product on top of that you're not exporting as much as you'd like to see exported especially to China and other countries and this market has worked itself down now I wouldn't be surprised if you get some short covering you finally come back to the lower Bollinger Band you haven't been there until about five weeks ago or so when you got down then you had a nice rally but the rallies have been what they date is a group if not held and this market keeps looking for a lower price level so that's how I'm viewing what I see at least here you've got all the markets open behind me you know you might want to take a look at some of the offerings we have from not only modern trader but our other publications that we put out the simplest way to do this go to our website www.irs.gov from there just click on free offers now over the next week or so we have been working hard on a new look to our homepage making things simpler to get around how to find videos and so on you're gonna see that that is done I've already been going through this with our tech people and I love what we've got it's going to be very interesting I'll tell you when that's coming out in the meantime a my reps ting good to be back and I'll see you tomorrow

6 thoughts on “Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 7 29 2019

  1. First week of August 2015 qqq dropped from 108 to 81 in 3 minutes. Today a 20% drop would be Jan 2019 lows. Fasten your seat belts or buy SPY puts.

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