Foreign Policy Priorities for Armenia and Azerbaijan

Foreign Policy Priorities for Armenia and Azerbaijan



so tonight if I could send to you first and ask you your report I mean his foreign-policy balance in in an age of uncertainty published in March of this year did you conduct most of this research before the April 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia and if so how did those events change or alter the the analysis that you presented this report indeed I started working on the report before the Revolution but what I can say is that I think that the revolution proved some of the hypotheses that I came up with in the report for example one is that the West didn't expect such a democratic transition to happen in anemia because it's had resigned itself to seeing Armenia as a democracy outlier and now there are questions as to how to proceed from from this point on another hypothesis that I made in the report was that because of lacking democratic legitimacy Armenian authorities were more dependent on outside actors from here Russia and now this revolution in in a longer term might actually prove that point right mm-hmm so if I can ask with Nikko passion young enjoying considerably more democratic legitimacy than his predecessor what is the impact of that on Arminius foreign policy and on its messaging in terms of its relations with with outside powers the key point here is that this government relies solely and exclusively on the domestic constituency for its legitimacy so it doesn't have to seek outside patterns let's say to legitimize itself and that the way that effects messaging I think that it's it makes this government more straightforward it doesn't really differentiate when it makes rhetorical overtures towards deal Oh outside audience or whether it is talking to its own people I think it's very straightforward it's simple it's just one messaging so is that if I could turn to you your report Azerbaijan relations with Russia closer by default one of the things that you might in this report is that Azerbaijan relationship with Russia is one of the least understood in terms of Azerbaijan and foreign policy relations why is that why is this relationship so easily misunderstood why is it so fluid the tool from the other vision foreign policy are analyzed based on the realities of the 90s such as the balancing foreign policy it ignores the reality of today that today there are many active tabletop players in other words in foreign policy and the Russia is one of them but none of them are capable of control balance and Russian projection in the region especially since 2013 Russian assertiveness and Russian role is increasingly sauce Caucasus so other region adopted a status of pacification which led across alignment with Russia in order to get a support from Russia on some of the issues including the never care about conflict resolution so this was misunderstood by also as a also visually making poor Russian forum also moved that this will end of the as always and joining the Russian led economic or military walks so also there are myths and misunderstandings and misleading station by also with any political observers including the members of the policy establishment so they exaggerated a Russian role and capacity on resolution of conflict there are living among also a portable elites that Russia would like to see other was in a member of the a communion in extends other words and can request a much more supportive role or another our conflict too often also vehicles makers think that this is the price we should pay that was Abu Simbel joined the original communion and in the long run as open is not going to lose anything

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