🔴 The Breakdown of Globalization (w/ Ian Bremmer)

🔴 The Breakdown of Globalization (w/ Ian Bremmer)


I actually see some level of trajectory Momentum away from further globalisation, but the most important point is the most advanced part of our economy Which is technology? chips 5g heart big data the cloud and there we actually see globalization literally falling apart I mean certainly People are moving and ideas are moving in capitals moving around the world faster and faster That’s certainly true. And if you want to talk about, you know sort of early stage industrialization Oil gas commodities rare earths. I don’t see de globalization happening there I actually see markets continuing to become more integrated, but if you start talking about Manufactured goods and services there I see labor becoming less important to supply chain and I see supply chains becoming shorter and especially after the next economic downturn and Given the fact that the Chinese are becoming more competitive and they don’t have rule of law. I actually see some level of trajectory Momentum away from further globalization, but the most important point is the most advanced part of our economy Which is technology? chips 5g heart big data the cloud and there we actually see globalization literally falling apart we see two completely different competitive systems one being driven by the Chinese the other Largely being driven by the Americans and they don’t interact I mean everyone’s complaining right now in China that the Americans are trying to get Witter Huawei, which is their major you know sort of technology company driving 5g, but if you’re Amazon or Google Which are functionally American monopolies in their space, you know They don’t even have access in the world’s largest internet market China. Yeah, that’s it. That’s not globalization. That’s not the world wide web That’s a splinter net and it’s completely different from what advocates of globalization and the free market We’re hoping was gonna happen in 21st century trade wars figuring into all of this Interconnected with this we can you say well trade wars are a part of this but the Americans and the Chinese Fundamentally need each other in trade. We want to buy Chinese goods They want to sell them to us and one of the reasons why Trump despite talking about putting tariffs on the remaining 325 billion dollars of Chinese exports to the US has been reluctant to do so Because those are products that American consumers actually buy it’s clothing. Its toys its your iPhone and if he does that American voters are gonna feel it So he’s very reluctant and that’s why despite the fact that there’s no breakthrough deal as of yet between American and the Chinese He’s actually put a ceiling on further escalation so yes, the populism and nationalism that we see not just in the US but in many democracies around the world developed and developing is leading to some more protectionism but the fact is that the interconnection of international trade is still a driving force in the driving force that yes, they’re multilateral agreements Part of the picture here – disintegrating into bilateral agreements What do you see the trends in that happening as it ties in with everything that you’re describing? it’s very hard for leaders of advanced industrial economies to convince their Populations that more free trade is good for them So the average member of the working class in the middle class may see That the markets are doing really well and may see that the top 10% 1% point 1% have done really well But to the extent that their wages have been flat for decades now telling them that NAFTA or the trans-pacific partnership Is good for them doesn’t really cut the mustard that’s true in the u.s Bernie Sanders would have opposed the TPP Hillary Clinton was an architect but said she’d have to change it before she pushed it through Congress Trump of course famously said I’m ripping it up and Obama couldn’t get it done. That’s also true in Europe It’s true in lots of wealthy democracies interestingly You’ve got a lot of populism and nationalism in countries like Mexico and Brazil But they are working in middle classes have benefited from globalization and they see it Those are the ones that got the jobs that left the United States and Europe So even though they are voting in anti-establishment anti-corruption figures There’s no problem promoting free trade and in Mexico the new US Mexico Canada trade agreement Which is a little bit like NAFTA prime is very popular among pretty much the entire population. Mm-hmm. The you mentioned corruption to shift gears a little bit What about the rise of illiberal democracies? You have many governments now emerging where you have autocrats at the core Benefiting from what appears to be superficially a Democracy, I think you can think of Russia in that regard and in other countries, too they vote the people vote for So-and-so and there’s an operation that seems to be happening within those countries having to do with perhaps Illicit funds and money and kleptocrats and things of that sort What’s on that also it’s interesting? First of all, I would not consider Russian a liberal democracy I would consider them a functional authoritarian regime There are no meaningful opposition parties in Russia, the Russian government controls all the media that matters And as a consequence if the Russian people wanted to potentially vote for someone other than Putin They really don’t have the opportunity to in the case of Turkey You have a democracy with relatively weak democratic institutions and a would-be autocrat former prime minister now President Erdogan Trying to dismantle that system so that he can run it right and he’s family. That’s really interesting Like he’s tried really hard and Lord knows there’s a lot of corruption around his family and around his you know Sort of business Network and yet there was an attempted coup against him it failed and yet, you know They couldn’t get his own guy as the mayor of Istanbul despite two tries two bites at the Apple in their elections and Some of his most important former supporters are now leaving his a.k party and they’re developing Alternative political movements in the same space the center-right to go against him. In other words. I think we’re seeing the tipping point Away from her Diwan. I don’t think he’s gonna be running that country and another sort of five to ten years But we’re not seeing the tipping point of autocrat star. Are we no, no, no, maybe him autocrats you’re in there like autocrats are becoming stronger in many of their countries because Number one you don’t have this cohesive Free world order that’s actively promoting human rights and democracy. They’re not leading by example number two technology is increasingly empowering autocrats to surveil their populace and Sort of nudge their behavior into ways that are more stabilizing for that political regime, but my point on Turkey Is that for those in the United States that believe? Oh my god if Trump gets a second term we’re no longer gonna be a democracy the facts believe that when Trump says I Want to change the way we think about the census he fails he has to back away when Trump says I don’t like the way the feds behaving I don’t want an independent central bank Jay Powell says if he tells me to quit I’m not leaving I mean So far two and a half years of Trump, he’s divided the country an awful lot He’s caused a lot of internal angst and even some real anger But he’s not actually done anything to the institutions and I think that’s really important You You

8 thoughts on “🔴 The Breakdown of Globalization (w/ Ian Bremmer)

  1. MAGA.Trump 2020 but young Blacks and mix racials ages 20- 24 good educated are leaving the U.S.to China , to Japan ,to Singapole ,to South Korea because they don t feel they have security and good salaries in Europe and in the U.S.Most of these young Blacks are Ingeniors and Economists .

  2. 7:39 guy underestimates that Trump changed America's idea of a "normal president".

    As a reaction to Trump, the Dems will elect Joseph Stalin in 2020.

  3. Do you guys realize that Bremmer has been completely fucking wrong on every forecast he has made since 2008 crisis. If there was ever a more politicized buffoon, who uses propaganda to forecast global risks, there he is.

  4. It's all a never ending 4,000 year cycle. Empire, breakdown, empire breakdown, global, local, global, local, cycling back and forth. Real life is local life, real babies, real love. Fake life is fake life, pictures of babies, babies on Facebook, fake love. It all cycles back and forth, back and forth, forever. This is the true nature of life.

  5. We've gotten all we can from forced integration, globalization, and liberal left wing politics. 1966 to 2016 was a fifty year liberalization. Now we go back, less flood, less water, more conservative localism. We have to cycle.

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